04/05/2021 Draftkings MLB Notes and Plays

04/05

About the Slate:

  • 7 Games:

  • NYM (-205) v PHI (+175) o/u 7.5

  • TBR (-112) v BOS (-108) o/u 9.5

  • MIL (-105) v CHC (-115) o/u 9.5

  • HOU (-102) v LAA (-118) o/u 10

  • LAD (-166) v OAK (+143) o/u 9.0

  • CWS (-125) v SEA (+105) o/u 8.0

  • SFG (+135) v SDP (-155) o/u 8.5

  • Pitching overview (2020 baseline untill we get a solid sample size)

  • The Giants absoutly crushed lefties last year and that coupled with Morejon's Hard contact % & HR/9 looks like a juicy matchup, only thing that has me worries there is his low SIERA indicating that he is due for alot of positive regression.

  • While Justus Sheffield has nice numbers overall the combination of ISO v Lefties/ Contact% and differential in ERA/SIERA (meaning he might have gotten lucky in some outings last year) are all concerning.

Bets

  • SFG TT o3.5 (-110)

  • LAD -1.5 (+125)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Brandon Lowe - Lowe in 2019+2020 had a Hard Contact % of 40.6%, ISO of .238, and Fly Ball % of 41.6% against Righties. The previously mentioned stats paired with Pivetta's 44.7% Hard contact %, 2.44 HR/9 in 2020 as well as a 25% HR/FB & .334 ISO allowed to LHH in 2020 makes me think this is a dream matchup for Lowe my only concern is that Fenway is not super condusive to lefties hitting bombs.

  • Wilmer Flores - In 62 AB's last year against LHP's Flores had an unreal .387 ISO & 7 HR's this pairs well with Morejon's .270 ISO, 37% FB%, and 33.3% HR/FB% to RHH over the last 2 years. (Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski are also prime to hit a nuke tonight).

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash Plays:

  • MIL

  • CHC

  • TB

  • LAA

GPP:

  • SFG

  • LAD

  • NYM (While we dont know how Matt Moore will be coming back from Japan his last two years were dreadful in the MLB having the most losses and runs given up and if I can get a solid team at depressed ownership against that it doesnt sound bad). Wind is blowing in 10-15 MPH though.

Pitching(DK):

Chalk/Cash:

  • Jacob deGrom (cash game lock)

  • Carlos Rondon

  • Dustin May (Not projected as chalky but seems like a good cash play)

GPP:

  • Trevor Williams - *warning* will either make you look big brain or will make you close out of the DK app in the first 5 min, reasoning for liking him is besides Yeli/Keston the Brewcrew's lineup is soft and is pojected to be one of the chalkiest on the slate so why not get some leverage against a team with a 27.4% K rate to RHP. (actually ignore this if the wind is gonna be blowing out in Wrigley there will be nukes).

  • Michael Wacha - While having a 6.62 ERA Wacha sported a 3.99 SIERA last year indicating that he got really unlucky, while not someone I am ever confident in its only logical as a GPP play against a Boston team that has looked dreadful so far.

Positional Breakdown: (No order just who has good matchups)

C: James McCann, Will Smith, Yasmani Grandal, Manny Pina 1B: Wilmer Flores, Yuli Gurriel, Jared Walsh, Eric Hosmer 2B: Brandon Lowe,Edwin Rios, Jake Cronenworth, SS: Tim Anderson, Corey Seager, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jose Iglesias 3B: Kris Bryant, Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendone, Manny Machado, Bobby Dalbec OF: Austin Slater, Mike Yastrzemski, Kevin Pillar, Randy Arozarena, Jake Marisnick, Yordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Will Myers Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io/ <------Big Brain people use this

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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