04/05/2021 Draftkings MLB Notes and Plays

04/05

About the Slate:

  • 7 Games:

  • NYM (-205) v PHI (+175) o/u 7.5

  • TBR (-112) v BOS (-108) o/u 9.5

  • MIL (-105) v CHC (-115) o/u 9.5

  • HOU (-102) v LAA (-118) o/u 10

  • LAD (-166) v OAK (+143) o/u 9.0

  • CWS (-125) v SEA (+105) o/u 8.0

  • SFG (+135) v SDP (-155) o/u 8.5

  • Pitching overview (2020 baseline untill we get a solid sample size)

  • The Giants absoutly crushed lefties last year and that coupled with Morejon's Hard contact % & HR/9 looks like a juicy matchup, only thing that has me worries there is his low SIERA indicating that he is due for alot of positive regression.

  • While Justus Sheffield has nice numbers overall the combination of ISO v Lefties/ Contact% and differential in ERA/SIERA (meaning he might have gotten lucky in some outings last year) are all concerning.

Bets

  • SFG TT o3.5 (-110)

  • LAD -1.5 (+125)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Brandon Lowe - Lowe in 2019+2020 had a Hard Contact % of 40.6%, ISO of .238, and Fly Ball % of 41.6% against Righties. The previously mentioned stats paired with Pivetta's 44.7% Hard contact %, 2.44 HR/9 in 2020 as well as a 25% HR/FB & .334 ISO allowed to LHH in 2020 makes me think this is a dream matchup for Lowe my only concern is that Fenway is not super condusive to lefties hitting bombs.

  • Wilmer Flores - In 62 AB's last year against LHP's Flores had an unreal .387 ISO & 7 HR's this pairs well with Morejon's .270 ISO, 37% FB%, and 33.3% HR/FB% to RHH over the last 2 years. (Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski are also prime to hit a nuke tonight).

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash Plays: