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04/05/2021 Draftkings MLB Notes and Plays

04/05

About the Slate:

  • 7 Games:

  • NYM (-205) v PHI (+175) o/u 7.5

  • TBR (-112) v BOS (-108) o/u 9.5

  • MIL (-105) v CHC (-115) o/u 9.5

  • HOU (-102) v LAA (-118) o/u 10

  • LAD (-166) v OAK (+143) o/u 9.0

  • CWS (-125) v SEA (+105) o/u 8.0

  • SFG (+135) v SDP (-155) o/u 8.5

  • Pitching overview (2020 baseline untill we get a solid sample size)

  • The Giants absoutly crushed lefties last year and that coupled with Morejon's Hard contact % & HR/9 looks like a juicy matchup, only thing that has me worries there is his low SIERA indicating that he is due for alot of positive regression.

  • While Justus Sheffield has nice numbers overall the combination of ISO v Lefties/ Contact% and differential in ERA/SIERA (meaning he might have gotten lucky in some outings last year) are all concerning.

Bets

  • SFG TT o3.5 (-110)

  • LAD -1.5 (+125)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Brandon Lowe - Lowe in 2019+2020 had a Hard Contact % of 40.6%, ISO of .238, and Fly Ball % of 41.6% against Righties. The previously mentioned stats paired with Pivetta's 44.7% Hard contact %, 2.44 HR/9 in 2020 as well as a 25% HR/FB & .334 ISO allowed to LHH in 2020 makes me think this is a dream matchup for Lowe my only concern is that Fenway is not super condusive to lefties hitting bombs.

  • Wilmer Flores - In 62 AB's last year against LHP's Flores had an unreal .387 ISO & 7 HR's this pairs well with Morejon's .270 ISO, 37% FB%, and 33.3% HR/FB% to RHH over the last 2 years. (Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski are also prime to hit a nuke tonight).

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash Plays:

  • MIL

  • CHC

  • TB

  • LAA

GPP:

  • SFG

  • LAD

  • NYM (While we dont know how Matt Moore will be coming back from Japan his last two years were dreadful in the MLB having the most losses and runs given up and if I can get a solid team at depressed ownership against that it doesnt sound bad). Wind is blowing in 10-15 MPH though.

Pitching(DK):

Chalk/Cash:

  • Jacob deGrom (cash game lock)

  • Carlos Rondon

  • Dustin May (Not projected as chalky but seems like a good cash play)