04/06/2021Draftkings MLB Notes and Plays

Updated: Apr 7, 2021

04/06

About the slate:

  • 8 Games

  • NYM (-127) v PHI (+107) o/u 9.0

  • TBR (-160) v BOS (+140) o/u 9.0

  • MIL (-103) v CHC (-117) o/u 9.0

  • TOR (-130) v TEX (+110) o/u 9.5

  • ARI (+107) v COL (-127) o/u 10.5

  • LAD (-175) v OAK (+150) o/u 8.5

  • SFG (+165) v SD (-190) o/u 8.0

  • CWS (-150) v SEA (+130) o/u 7.5

  • Pitching overview (2020 baseline untill we get a solid sample size)

  • Some SP's that are on the early slate are included in this list.

  • Martin Perez's numbers might look okay at first glance but has the highest SIERA on the slate and the Rays are crushing lefties with a team average .218 ISO, if their ownership is low TBR seems to be in a nice spot for GPP's.

  • Chase Anderson hase good stikeout stuff and hit some all time personal highs last year but he is prone to the long ball, i think this makes the Mets a nice mini stack or one off situation (Polar Bear/Dom Smith preferred)

  • Chris Bassitt's numbers from a far do us a favor and might keep some ownership of the dodgers, Bassitt struggles with lefties big time look to get some Dodger lefties in your lineup tonight.

  • Keep an eye on ARI@COL weather

  • Dane Dunning on a pitch count

Bets (1-1)

  • Alzolay o5.5 K's (+120)

  • LAD o4.5 (-120)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Mike Brosseau - Brosseau had a 62.1% hard contact rate,.405 ISO, and 51.7% Fly ball rate against LHP over 42 at bats in 2020. (also including Randy Arozarena in this)

  • Dominic Smith/Pete Alonso - in over 124 ABs in 2020 Smith had a .331 ISO and 37% Fly Ball rate while Alonso had .277 ISO and 48.%% FB rate. Anderson last year let up 27.8% HR/FB to LHH and 30% HR/FB to RHH last year in over 140 AB sample size.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • TOR

  • COL

GPP:

  • LAD

  • SD

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Lucas Giolito

  • Yu Darvish

  • Tyler Glasnow

GPP:

  • Adbert Alzolay - Same story as last night the Brewers have a 27.5% K% to RHP and at a cheep price tag of $7,400 he makes alot of builds work while Williams was a great play last night we wont get as much value from leverage but still a decent SP2 target in my eyes.

Positional Breakdown:

C: Yasmani Grandal/Yermin, James McCann, Dom Nunez 1B: C.J Cron, Eric Hosmer, Pete Alonso, Nate Lowe/Guzman, Jose Abreau, Max Muncy 2B: Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Lux, Leury Garcia,Ryan McMahon SS: Corey Seager, Bo Bichette, Willy Adames, Trevor Story 3B: Mike Brosseau, Manny Machado, Edwin Rios OF: Cody Bellinger (if he plays), Dominic Smith, Bryce Harper, Brandon Nimmo, Randy Arozarena, Will Myers Weather: Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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