04/13/2021 Draftkings MLB Notes and Plays

04/13

Slate Overview:

  • 10 Games (BAL v SEA PPD)

  • Wrote a query that pulls all the odds on bovada for the day will refine it to just the slate later on.

  • TOR/NYY will be the second game of a double headder meaning the game will only be 7 innings

  • Will start including 2021 data soon.

  • There is a ton of great pitching options today and some are completly mispriced, with so many good pitchers being cheep the expensive ones will not have near as much ownership as usual.

  • Viable pitchers IMO: Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Stephen Strasburg, Dylan Bundy, Brandon Woodruff,Luis Castillio, Max Fried, Ryan Yarbrough.

Bets

  • DET TT o3.5 (-115)

  • Dylan Bundy o5.5 K's (-150)

  • LAA -1.5 (+120)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Akil Baddoo - While I didn't want to put him here because of Odorizzi's low HR/FB% Odo has a very high FB% to LHH and 40% hard contact rate. Akil is on a tear and has a .667 ISO and 3 HR's against RHP in 18 AB's.

  • Garrett Cooper - If anyone is gonna get one out against Max tonight its gonna be cooper, Cooper in 44 AB's last year against LHP had a .455 ISO, 38% Hard Contact, and 41.2% Fly Ball %.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • LAD

  • HOU

GPP:

  • TB - On a slate where there is good pitching all around TB has the upside/price combo that you want and we have seen both the good and bad side of Kyle Gibson already.

  • DET - I personally am going here in GPP's in the form of a 3 man stack in Wilson Ramos, Renato Nunez, Akil Baddoo, Jake Odorizzi hasnt pitched in quite some time and we don't know what to expect from him and I am just playing on the angle that he might get knocked around a bit, his lone start in 2020 he gave up 10 ER. Ramos/Nunez,Baddoo all have .500 ISO's against RHP's in 2020+2021 data.

  • MIA - Max is a good pitcher so I am hesitant but he has got knocked around so far this year and is super cheap so a Pitcher that use to be 9K+ being 6.5K will make him garner alot of ownership (strictly a leverage play).

Pitching(DK):

Chalk/Cash:

  • Shane Beiber/ Trevor Bauer

  • Brandon Woodruff

  • Max Fried

GPP:

  • Dylan Bundy - Kansas City is striking out at a 29% clip this year and people's ignorance on Bundy because of his performances from 3 years ago always keeps his lowership depressed, with so many good options he will get lost in the shuffle (should be less than 5% owned and has 10K+ upside).

  • Ryan Yarbrough - Super cheep and going up against the Rangers....is there much else that needs to be said?

Positional Breakdown:

C: Wilson Ramos, Will Smith, Max Stassi, Yermin Mercadies 1B: Renato Nunez, Max Muncy, Yuli Gurriel, Edwin Rios 2B: Brandon Lowe, David Fletcher, Chris Taylor SS: Corey Seager, Joey Wendle,Miguel Rojas, Carlos Correa 3B: Alex Bregman, Brian Anderson, Jose Ramirez OF: Akil Baddoo, Mike Trout, Garrett Cooper, Mookie Betts, Randy Arozarena, Zach McKinstry, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Justin Upton

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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