04/14/2021 Draftkings MLB Notes and Plays

04/14

Slate Overview:

  • 2 Slates

  • Early 5 Games

  • Boston & MIN - Doubleheader Game 1 - Totals & RLs are action after 7 Full innings or 6½ if the Home Team is winning.

  • Stripling scratched

  • Main 7 Games

  • Looking like SEA@BAL is gonna be a PPD, If not all wheels go on both sides of this game.

  • McCullers Jr. will be chalk and has been good this year but gives up alot of power, look for Baddoo or nunez to get a solo shot.

  • Pitching Data is 2020&2021 Mixed, Hitting K%&ISO are now 2021. Will fix pitcher handedness N/A Errors soon once I find a database that has tables that has them that I can pull from and has been updated to include pitchers past 2019.

Bets

  • MIN TT o3.5 (-115) Buxton not playing is eh you can still do it but not not the best.

  • TOR ML +130

  • MIL -1.5 (+115)

DFS

Home Run Call(s) (Early Slate):

  • Byron Buxton - In 121 AB's against RHP over 2020&2021 Buxton had 15 HR's and a .405 ISO. - Buxton scratched switching to Nelly Cruz

  • Jared Walsh - In 89 AB's agasint RHP Walsh had a .461 ISO and 11 HR's.


Stacks (Early Slate):

Chalk/Cash:

  • NYY (Odor,LeMahieu,Stanton, Sanchez) - leaning towards fading at their ownership.

  • TOR (Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Hernandez)

  • LAA - (Walsh,Trout,Ohtani)

GPP:

  • MIN - Will be a short game but they have the type of hitters in Buxton,Cruz (if he plays),Sano that can pay off with just one hit for larger tournaments I think they have great upside with low ownerships. (would limit the stack to 3 man or a one off) - Swapping this to a Nelly cruz one off

  • MIL - Low owned decent upside makes expensive stacks work.

Pitching(DK) (Early Slate):

Chalk/Cash:

  • Corbin Burnes

  • Kenta Maeda

  • Nathan Eovaldi

GPP:

  • Griffin Canning - Canning is always a great GPP play because he lets up some runs and lets up a decent amount of power and that keeps his price down and that decent price paired with his good K rate and KC striking out 30%!! of the time to RHP so far this year earns him a look in GPP's.

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Home Run Call(s) (Main):

  • Rhys Hoskins - Hoskins in 188 AB's during the 2018-2020 seasons had a 50% HC rate, .319 ISO, and 49.3% FB rate against RHP's. Peterson in the 2020 season allowed almost double the ISO to RHH's compared to LHH's.

  • Kyle Tucker/Yordan Alvarez - Yordan during 2018-2020 has had a 49.7% HC%, .339 ISO, 43.7% FB% in 218 AB's, Tucker las year in 154 AB;s against RHP had a 40.7 HC%, .279 ISO and 45.3% FB%.

Stacks (Main):

Chalk/Cash:

  • ATL (d,Arnaud,Acuna,Freeman,Swanson,Ozuna)

  • LAD (Seager,Muncy,Rios,Smith,Betts)

  • HOU (Alvarez,Tucker,Diaz,Brantley)

GPP:

  • TB - Rangers pitcher Kohei Arihara is a groundballer so it can be frusterating to stack against him, I recomend a full on 5 man stack if you play them instead of hoping for HR equity. Arihara has a 5.71 SIERA and 5.5 xFIP over the last 30 days. He struggles with RHH's. Id focus on (Arozarena, Zunio, Adames, Brosseau, Lowe)

  • PHI - Peterson got knocked around by the Phillies focus on (Hoskins, McCutchen, Harper, Bohm, Realmuto)

Pitching(DK) (Main):

Chalk/Cash:

  • Charlie Morton

  • Lance McCullers Jr.

  • Dustin May

GPP:

  • Zach Plesac

  • Josh Fleming - Fleming has had really good stuff in the minors and was 5-0 with the Rays in 2020 with a 2.78 ERA and 25 Strikeouts over 32 innings, hes does have a 1.34 HR/9 so Gallo/Lowe could take him deep but is cheep going up against an easy opponent.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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