04/14/2021 Draftkings MLB Notes and Plays

04/14

Slate Overview:

2 Slates
Early 5 Games
Boston & MIN - Doubleheader Game 1 - Totals & RLs are action after 7 Full innings or 6½ if the Home Team is winning.
Stripling scratched
Main 7 Games
Looking like SEA@BAL is gonna be a PPD, If not all wheels go on both sides of this game.
McCullers Jr. will be chalk and has been good this year but gives up alot of power, look for Baddoo or nunez to get a solo shot.

Pitching Data is 2020&2021 Mixed, Hitting K%&ISO are now 2021. Will fix pitcher handedness N/A Errors soon once I find a database that has tables that has them that I can pull from and has been updated to include pitchers past 2019.

Bets

MIN TT o3.5 (-115) Buxton not playing is eh you can still do it but not not the best.
TOR ML +130
MIL -1.5 (+115)

DFS

Home Run Call(s) (Early Slate):

Byron Buxton - In 121 AB's against RHP over 2020&2021 Buxton had 15 HR's and a .405 ISO. - Buxton scratched switching to Nelly Cruz
Jared Walsh - In 89 AB's agasint RHP Walsh had a .461 ISO and 11 HR's.

Stacks (Early Slate):

Chalk/Cash:

NYY (Odor,LeMahieu,Stanton, Sanchez) - leaning towards fading at their ownership.
TOR (Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Hernandez)
LAA - (Walsh,Trout,Ohtani)

GPP:

MIN - Will be a short game but they have the type of hitters in Buxton,Cruz (if he plays),Sano that can pay off with just one hit for larger tournaments I think they have great upside with low ownerships. (would limit the stack to 3 man or a one off) - Swapping this to a Nelly cruz one off
MIL - Low owned decent upside makes expensive stacks work.

Pitching(DK) (Early Slate):

Chalk/Cash:

GPP:

Griffin Canning - Canning is always a great GPP play because he lets up some runs and lets up a decent amount of power and that keeps his price down and that decent price paired with his good K rate and KC striking out 30%!! of the time to RHP so far this year earns him a look in GPP's.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Home Run Call(s) (Main):

Rhys Hoskins - Hoskins in 188 AB's during the 2018-2020 seasons had a 50% HC rate, .319 ISO, and 49.3% FB rate against RHP's. Peterson in the 2020 season allowed almost double the ISO to RHH's compared to LHH's.
Kyle Tucker/Yordan Alvarez - Yordan during 2018-2020 has had a 49.7% HC%, .339 ISO, 43.7% FB% in 218 AB's, Tucker las year in 154 AB;s against RHP had a 40.7 HC%, .279 ISO and 45.3% FB%.

Stacks (Main):

Chalk/Cash:

GPP:

TB - Rangers pitcher Kohei Arihara is a groundballer so it can be frusterating to stack against him, I recomend a full on 5 man stack if you play them instead of hoping for HR equity. Arihara has a 5.71 SIERA and 5.5 xFIP over the last 30 days. He struggles with RHH's. Id focus on (Arozarena, Zunio, Adames, Brosseau, Lowe)
PHI - Peterson got knocked around by the Phillies focus on (Hoskins, McCutchen, Harper, Bohm, Realmuto)

Pitching(DK) (Main):

Chalk/Cash:

GPP:

Zach Plesac
Josh Fleming - Fleming has had really good stuff in the minors and was 5-0 with the Rays in 2020 with a 2.78 ERA and 25 Strikeouts over 32 innings, hes does have a 1.34 HR/9 so Gallo/Lowe could take him deep but is cheep going up against an easy opponent.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

62 views0 comments