04/16/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

04/16

Slate Overview:

Hitting ISO & K 2021 only, Pitching is 2020 and 2021 data.
First reactions:
Adrian Houser is completly mispriced and should be mega chalk.
Why is Urquidy 10K?, Folty looks like someone to pick on.
Dylan Cease is someone I have been optimistic on previously but looking at that 5.76 SIERA it looks like he is due for some negative regression.
Daniel Castano is a groundballer but has some ugly underlying numbers and the Giants have absoutly wrecked LPH's over the past 2 seasons.

Bets

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

Nate Lowe - over the past 2 seasons Lowe has had a .400 ISO, .532 wOBA,.800 SLG against RHP's this pairs well with Lopez's 1.89 HR/9 (Gallo also in consideration).
Yerman Mercedes - Pivetta over the last 27 innings he has pitched has had a 40% Hard Contact rate, 1.69 HR/9, 49% Fly Ball % and has given up alot more power to RHH, Mercedes has been an absolute animal since making his big league start and in 33 AB's vs RHP has a .333 ISO, .788 SLG, and 3 HR's.
BADDOOOOOOOOOO - Since the CWS game got PPD'd we are going back to the well here with Baddoo against RHP's in his rookie season in 27 AB's Baddoo has an unreal .593 ISO, .963 SLG, and 4 HR's. Match all of that up with Montas allowing 41% FB%, 20% HR/FB, and a .276 ISO to LHH and I think we will be seeing some fireworks.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

NYM (Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor) Game has been PPD
NYY (Kyle Higashioka, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Giabcarlo Stanton)
OAK (Matt Chapman, Seth Brown, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson)
LAA - In 44 MLB innings Thorpe has given up 30 earned runs, 7 HR's, 20 walks while striking out 41, while the sample size is small it seems like he struggles even more with lefties. I would focus on (Justin Upton *if he plays*, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Shoei Ohtani)

GPP: