04/24/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

04/24

Slate Overview:

  • 6 Games

  • Weather Concerns:

  • I would stay away from the OAK @ BAL game.

  • Watch for rain delays in the ARI @ ATL game.

  • Another coors slate booooo.

Bets

  • ARI TT o3.5 (-115)

  • TEX/CWS o8 (+110)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):.

  • Carson Kelley - Kelly over the past 2 seasons has mashed LHP's with 40% Hard Contact, .291 ISO, 43.2% FB%. Smiley over the past 2 years has given up almost .100 more ISO to RHH's and allowed a 49% HC rate & 43.5% FB rate.

  • Less confident but would bet that a few HR's will come from this group - Matt Chapman,Stephen Piscotty, Brad Miller, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • PHI - Big hitters going up against a bad pitcher in Coors, I think the optimal way to approach these situations is try to play your 3 man or a one off and capture some of the homerun equity while enabling yourself to differentiate elsewhere.

  • ATL - On smaller slates like these a game stack makes for a great gpp play.

  • OAK - Weather has me scared but if you think it plays both teams in this game are ina good sport and would have depressed ownership.

GPP:

  • ARI - So far in 2021 the Diamondbacks are only striking out at a 18% clip against LHP's while having a teams ISO average of an eye popping .250. (Focus on Escobar, Calhoun, Peralta, Kelley, Cabrera).

  • CWS - Gibson has looked great since that rough first game, but I'm not sure if this is sustainable. Gibson has a .467 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, and a .307 BABIP <---- very high for how well he has been playing for example last year against LHH's in a sample size of 129 batters faced he allowed 30 Hits, 7 HR's, and 12 walks resulting in an .178 ISO compared to this year where he has faced 42 LHH's and is only allowing an ISO of .05. So he either became the goat overnight or has been runnig really hot we shal see tonight. (Focus on Eaton,Anderson,Mercedes).

  • LAD - Blake Snell is good and there are clearly better plays but Snell does get knocked around sometimes and if anyone is going to do that it would be the Dodgers.

Pitching(DK):

Chalk/Cash:

  • Kevin Gausman

  • Trevor Bauer

GPP:

  • Aaron Nola

  • Pablo Lopez

Positional Breakdown:

C: Carsen Kelley, J.T Realmuto, Will Smith 1B: Yermen Mercedes, Freddie Freeman, Trey Mancini, 2B: Eduardo Escobar, Jazz Chisholm, Nick Solak SS: Tim Anderson, Corey Seager, Trevor Story 3B: Matt Champman, Alec Bohm, Justin Turner OF: Ronald Acuna Jr., Kole Calhoun, Steven Piscotty, Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, David Peralta

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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