04/28/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

04/28

Slate Overview:

  • 10 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • DET @ CWS - Watch for rain.

  • PHI @ STL - Watch for rain.

  • BAL @ NYY - Wind blowing out to center 5-8 MPH.

  • COL @ SF - Wind blowing out to center 7-10 MPH.

  • 1st photo includes pitching data from 2020 & 2021

  • 2nd photo is only 2021 pitching data. Hitting metrics are only 2021 in both.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • Kyle Hendricks FIP is nearing 8.0 (Anything above 5 is classified as awful according to fangraphs). The Braves having a team avg .193 ISO against RHP isn't going to do him any favors either.

  • Justin dunn is due for some regression soon since his SIERA is a full 2.0 points higher than his era and the Astros are only striking out 20% of the time to RHP's while having a .178 team average ISO. Yordan being out of the lineup helps his case though.

  • Carlos Rondon has looked like one of the best pitchers in the league so far and tonight is facing a team that is historically bad against LHP's striking out almost 35% of the time and only having a .078 teams average ISO.....but you know how baseabll is this will be the night my Tigers somehow go off.

Bets

  • ARI TT o3.5 (-110)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Kyle Tucker - Tucker has a .289 ISO & 55.3% Fly Ball rate against RHP on the year, Dunn over the last 2 seasons has allowed a .277 ISO, 21.1% FB/HR, and 46.3% FB rate to LHH's. Dunn has struggled with lefties giving up over .150 more points of ISO to LHH in over a 140+ batter sample.

  • Is it cheating if I say one of Vlad/Bo?

Stacks:

Chalk:

  • NYY

  • TOR - George Springer makes his 1st start of the season at a very affordable 4.8K.

  • HOU

  • SDP - Arizona's SP Widener was just placed on the IL so i'm not sure how to guage this stack.

GPP:

  • ARI - The Diamondbacks are crushing lefties with a team average .286 ISO!!!!!! on the year while only striking out 19% of the time. I'm hoping Ryan Weathers respectable numbers will keep the ownership at bay.

  • ATL - Kyle Hendricks has an FIP of 8 which is wild in its own right, Hendricks over his career in over 1000 IP has a 2.65 ERA at home and a 3.73 ERA on the road. Also blows me away that they are projecting for almost no ownership considering what the Braves did to him last time out. (Alex Jackson being in the LU is annoying though.)

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Carlos Rondon

  • Tyler Glasnow

  • Alex Wood

GPP:

  • German Marquez - While this Giants team has some pop they are alot better against lefties, against righties the Gaints are striking out 10% more than against lefties, also one of their biggest threats Mike Yastrzemski might miss. Marquez is cheep and always had 25+ point upside.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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