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04/29/2022 MLB DFS

04/29

Slate Overview:

  • Games:13

  • Weather Concerns:

  • Rain:

  • LAA@CWS

  • Wind:

  • LAA@CWS - Wind blowing in 10-13 MPH.

  • PHI@NYM - Wind blowing left to right 12-14 MPH.

  • NYY@KCR - Wind blowing out to left 12-14 MPH.

  • CIN@COL - Wind blowing in 22-24 MPH!!!!

  • DET@LAD - Wind blowing out to right-center 8-10 MPH.


Things that stand out to me:

  • Mad bum having a 1 ERA and a 5.02 SEIRA means he has been very lucky and is due for some major regression soon.

  • Yikuchi's xFIP and SEIRA are high relative to his ERA so he too might be due for some negative regression.

  • If all the chalk is going to be on the cheap Reds with 25+ MPH winds blowing in...I am very interested in a full Coors fade.


DFS:

HR Calls:

  • Nolan Arenado or Albert Pujols - Nolan has a .600 ISO, 61.5% Hard Contact Rate, and 53.8% Fly Ball Rate v LHPs this year while Pujols has a .538 ISO, 50% Hard Contact Rate, and 40% Fly Ball Rate.

  • Aaron Judge or Anthony Rizzo.

  • Will Smith or Trea Turner

Top Pitchers:

  • Nestor Cortez Jr.

  • 7....7! KCR batters have a .000 ISO vs LHPs this year.

  • Only 2 are striking out more than 20% of the time to LHPs this year though, which at his price/ ownership may be fade-worthy.

  • Dylan Bundy

  • Projecting for sub 5% ownership.

  • Has really got it together this year only allowing a .077 ISO to LHHs and .065 ISO to RHHs.

  • 6 TBR hitters have a K rate over 27%!! v RHPs this year.

  • It is scary picking a pitcher against TBR because of the pop they have but the K Upside and ownership is perfect tonight.

  • Adam Wainwright

  • Every PIT batter is striking out more than 21% of the time to RHPs this year.

  • The Pirates have some decent pop but the K upside is worth the risk.

  • Tyler Anderson

  • The tigers only have a .070 ISO and 25.5% K rate vs LHPs is a pretty nice combo.

  • 6 DET batters have an ISO of .000 v LHPs this year.

  • Tork and Baez are the only ones I would be worried about.

  • (GPP ONLY) Kyle Bradish

  • The kid has a 1.20 ERA with a 17:3 K: BB rate in the minors.

  • 5 BOS batters have a 24% or more K rate vs RHPs this year.

  • 5 BOS batters have a .115 ISO or lower v RHPS this year.

Top Stacks:

  • STL

  • Goldschmidt, O'Neil, Arenado, and Pujols all had ISOs over .300 v LHPs last year. Mad Bum has been decent v LHHs this year and this Cardinals LU will only have one LHH in it.

  • The only downside is that 7/8/9 batters for STL are trash.

  • SFG

  • How is Aaron Sanchez still in the league? The dude has to be 50...4 SFG Batters have an ISO over .200 v RHPs this year with the lowest ISO on the team being .124 v RHPs this year. I would focus on Belt, Crawford, Gonzalez, and Slater.

  • HOU

  • Kikuchi like Mad bum has very high xFIP and SEIRA numbers which suggest that he has gotten very lucky this season. While I hate BvP Kikuchi is 1-5 with almost a 6 ERA v Houston. 4-7 are HOU's best hitters v LHP's with Kyle Tucker having the most success with a .270 ISO.

  • NYY (3 Man stack)

  • Bubic has a 7.61 xFIP this season is okay against RHHs but gets crushed v LHHs .429 ISO allowed this year and a .298 ISO allowed last year.

  • Rizzo, Gallo, and Judge would be the only 3 I would really play.

  • Judge has a .579 ISO and Rizzo has a .381 ISO v LHPs this year.





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