LAA@CWS - Wind blowing in 10-13 MPH.
PHI@NYM - Wind blowing left to right 12-14 MPH.
NYY@KCR - Wind blowing out to left 12-14 MPH.
CIN@COL - Wind blowing in 22-24 MPH!!!!
DET@LAD - Wind blowing out to right-center 8-10 MPH.
Things that stand out to me:
Mad bum having a 1 ERA and a 5.02 SEIRA means he has been very lucky and is due for some major regression soon.
Yikuchi's xFIP and SEIRA are high relative to his ERA so he too might be due for some negative regression.
If all the chalk is going to be on the cheap Reds with 25+ MPH winds blowing in...I am very interested in a full Coors fade.
Nolan Arenado or Albert Pujols - Nolan has a .600 ISO, 61.5% Hard Contact Rate, and 53.8% Fly Ball Rate v LHPs this year while Pujols has a .538 ISO, 50% Hard Contact Rate, and 40% Fly Ball Rate.
Aaron Judge or Anthony Rizzo.
Will Smith or Trea Turner
Nestor Cortez Jr.
7....7! KCR batters have a .000 ISO vs LHPs this year.
Only 2 are striking out more than 20% of the time to LHPs this year though, which at his price/ ownership may be fade-worthy.
Projecting for sub 5% ownership.
Has really got it together this year only allowing a .077 ISO to LHHs and .065 ISO to RHHs.
6 TBR hitters have a K rate over 27%!! v RHPs this year.
It is scary picking a pitcher against TBR because of the pop they have but the K Upside and ownership is perfect tonight.
Every PIT batter is striking out more than 21% of the time to RHPs this year.
The Pirates have some decent pop but the K upside is worth the risk.
The tigers only have a .070 ISO and 25.5% K rate vs LHPs is a pretty nice combo.
6 DET batters have an ISO of .000 v LHPs this year.
Tork and Baez are the only ones I would be worried about.
(GPP ONLY) Kyle Bradish
The kid has a 1.20 ERA with a 17:3 K: BB rate in the minors.
5 BOS batters have a 24% or more K rate vs RHPs this year.
5 BOS batters have a .115 ISO or lower v RHPS this year.
Goldschmidt, O'Neil, Arenado, and Pujols all had ISOs over .300 v LHPs last year. Mad Bum has been decent v LHHs this year and this Cardinals LU will only have one LHH in it.
The only downside is that 7/8/9 batters for STL are trash.
How is Aaron Sanchez still in the league? The dude has to be 50...4 SFG Batters have an ISO over .200 v RHPs this year with the lowest ISO on the team being .124 v RHPs this year. I would focus on Belt, Crawford, Gonzalez, and Slater.
Kikuchi like Mad bum has very high xFIP and SEIRA numbers which suggest that he has gotten very lucky this season. While I hate BvP Kikuchi is 1-5 with almost a 6 ERA v Houston. 4-7 are HOU's best hitters v LHP's with Kyle Tucker having the most success with a .270 ISO.
NYY (3 Man stack)
Bubic has a 7.61 xFIP this season is okay against RHHs but gets crushed v LHHs .429 ISO allowed this year and a .298 ISO allowed last year.
Rizzo, Gallo, and Judge would be the only 3 I would really play.
Judge has a .579 ISO and Rizzo has a .381 ISO v LHPs this year.