04/30/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

04/30

Slate Overview:

  • 14 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • DET @ NYY wind blowing out 20-25+ MPH to right field.

  • NYM @ PHI wind blowing in 15-20 MPH.

  • CHC @ CIN wind blowing out 10-15 MPH.

  • Moved my sheets over to excel because im working on a little power query project so thats why the different format. All pitching data is just 2021 Now.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • If you exclude the thin air due to the altitude in Coors then Cincinnati's Great American Park is statistically the easiest park to hit HR's in, that in combination with 10-15 MPH wind blowing out to right seems prime for a few nukes tonight.

  • Skubal has been trash this year and besides the low BABIP there is not much that indicates that its gonna change any time soon.

  • Drew Smyly is going to be targeted alot because of that sky high ERA and HR/9 but even though 4.7 isnt good for SIERA he is due for some regression and 3.6 HR/9 is not sustainable and will positively regress to the mean.

Bets

  • CHC @ CIN o9 (-115)

  • NYM -1.5 (-115)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Jesse Winker - On the year Winker has a 45.5% Hard contact rate, .341 ISO, and 220 wRC+ against RHP. Jake Arrieta over the past 2 years has given up .052 more points of ISO to LHH's and Great American Park is the #1 field for LHH's to hit HR's in over the past 5 years according to Swish Analytics.

  • Kris Bryant, Travis d'Arnaud.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • TOR

  • ATL

  • NYY

GPP:

  • CHC & CIN - Just think that this game is being overlooked in general the Cubs after a horrible start are on fire hitting, and Reds absoutly crush RHP's & old man Jake Arrieta is due for some regression. Here are some ISO's vs opposing pitchers handedness to target in the game Bryant .667, Contreras.500, Baez .333,Castellanos .339, Naquin .348, Winker .341. Miley struggles more with righties and Arrieta struggles more with lefties.

  • SDP

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Gerrit Cole

  • Shane Bieber

  • Andrew Heaney

GPP:

  • Marcus Stroman - While stroman never had great K upside by himself he is facing a Bryce Harperless Phillies team that has 5 members that are striking out over 30% (38.2%,33.3%,30.8%,37.5%,31.3%) of the time to RHP's. This high Phillies K%, no Harper, and wind blowing in 10-15 MPH makes Stro a great play IMO.

  • Pablo Lopez.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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