04/30/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

04/30

Slate Overview:

  • 14 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • DET @ NYY wind blowing out 20-25+ MPH to right field.

  • NYM @ PHI wind blowing in 15-20 MPH.

  • CHC @ CIN wind blowing out 10-15 MPH.

  • Moved my sheets over to excel because im working on a little power query project so thats why the different format. All pitching data is just 2021 Now.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • If you exclude the thin air due to the altitude in Coors then Cincinnati's Great American Park is statistically the easiest park to hit HR's in, that in combination with 10-15 MPH wind blowing out to right seems prime for a few nukes tonight.

  • Skubal has been trash this year and besides the low BABIP there is not much that indicates that its gonna change any time soon.

  • Drew Smyly is going to be targeted alot because of that sky high ERA and HR/9 but even though 4.7 isnt good for SIERA he is due for some regression and 3.6 HR/9 is not sustainable and will positively regress to the mean.

Bets

  • CHC @ CIN o9 (-115)

  • NYM -1.5 (-115)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Jesse Winker - On the year Winker has a 45.5% Hard contact rate, .341 ISO, and 220 wRC+ against RHP. Jake Arrieta over the past 2 years has given up .052 more points of ISO to LHH's and Great American Park is the #1 field for LHH's to hit HR's in over the past 5 years according to Swish Analytics.