05/01/2021 Draftkings (Early) MLB News and Notes

05/01

Slate Overview:

  • 7 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • DET @ NYY - Wind blowing out to right field 12-14 MPH

  • CLE @ CWS - Wind blowing from right to left 20-25 MPH

  • KC @ MIN - Wind blowing out to left center 10 MPH

  • BAL @ OAK - Wind blowing out to right center 10-15 MPH

  • Things that stand out to me at first glance:

  • Houston is only striking out 18% of the time to LHP's & Fleming only has a 14% K rate, also Fleming has a 4.49 SIERA compared to this 1.23 SIERA as well as a LOB% of 95% so he might get knocked around soon. Fleming does have an extremely high GB%.

  • Would target a 1 off against Patrick Corbin with that hard hit% & HR/9.

  • Luzardo should have some positive regression.

Bets

  • Mehhhh - HOU ML (-114) *If they roll out a respectable LU*

DFS

Home Run Call(s):

  • Jesus Aguilar


Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • CIN

  • NYY - Going to fade the yanks here, Turnbull probably has a nice outing and then the Yanks some how get there late against the Leagues worst BP.

  • KC

GPP:

  • HOU - Regression coming for Fleming lets hope they dont ground into double plays all day long.

  • CHC - Great leverage off of Castillo, CIN also has the second worst BP in the league.

  • WAS

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Patrick Corbin - Corbin has been pretty horrid this year and is priced all the way down to $6.4K against Miami, he is projected for ownership north of 40% in the big GPP's mostly because people remember the Patrick Corbin of the past, I will have some Miami peices to get leverage on that ownership. Worth noting that Corbins SIERA is a full 5 points lower than his ERA indicating that hes been getting unlucky but Miami has been significantly better this year against LHP's as well.

  • Jameson Taillon - Never been a Taillon believer but in a good matchup, I'm not going here but has high K upside.

GPP:

  • Lance Lynn - The IL tag and respectable matchup will scare some ownership off of the best real life pitcher on the slate.

  • Spencer Turnbull - Will get you leverage on the Yankees stackers, good underlying numbers but we saw what the Yanks can do with some wind.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://www.statmuse.com

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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