05/01/2021 Draftkings (Early) MLB News and Notes

05/01

Slate Overview:

Things that stand out to me at first glance:
Houston is only striking out 18% of the time to LHP's & Fleming only has a 14% K rate, also Fleming has a 4.49 SIERA compared to this 1.23 SIERA as well as a LOB% of 95% so he might get knocked around soon. Fleming does have an extremely high GB%.
Would target a 1 off against Patrick Corbin with that hard hit% & HR/9.
Luzardo should have some positive regression.

Bets

DFS

Home Run Call(s):

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

CIN
NYY - Going to fade the yanks here, Turnbull probably has a nice outing and then the Yanks some how get there late against the Leagues worst BP.
KC

GPP:

HOU - Regression coming for Fleming lets hope they dont ground into double plays all day long.
CHC - Great leverage off of Castillo, CIN also has the second worst BP in the league.
WAS

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

Patrick Corbin - Corbin has been pretty horrid this year and is priced all the way down to $6.4K against Miami, he is projected for ownership north of 40% in the big GPP's mostly because people remember the Patrick Corbin of the past, I will have some Miami peices to get leverage on that ownership. Worth noting that Corbins SIERA is a full 5 points lower than his ERA indicating that hes been getting unlucky but Miami has been significantly better this year against LHP's as well.
Jameson Taillon - Never been a Taillon believer but in a good matchup, I'm not going here but has high K upside.

GPP:

Lance Lynn - The IL tag and respectable matchup will scare some ownership off of the best real life pitcher on the slate.
Spencer Turnbull - Will get you leverage on the Yankees stackers, good underlying numbers but we saw what the Yanks can do with some wind.

Sources:

https://www.statmuse.com

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