05/05/2021 MLB DFS News and Notes

Updated: May 5, 2021

05/05

Slate Overview:

  • 10 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • Watch for rain in DET @ BOS

  • HOU @ NYY - Wind blowing out to right 10-12 MPH.

  • MIL @ PHI - Wind blowing in 10+ MPH.

  • ATL @ WAS -Wind blowing in 15 MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • It never feels good to roster Martin Perez, but its almost just silly to not play LHP's against Detriot (who Strikes out 36.5% of the time to LHP's) at this point.

  • Ohtani has had 3 starts this year going up against the Whitesox once and the Rangers twice for a total of 13 innings and in those 13 innings he has 13 walks (21% BB rate for 2021). The high walk rate combined with a 45.80% Hard contact rate and bullpin that rates in the bottom five of the league makes Tampa Bay an interesting GPP target. Also he seems to struggle with his control in the 1st inning and get it togeather as he goes on so run to be scored in the first inning could be interesting. LAA is also the 3rd most condusive park for fantasy points if you are a LHH (also #1 park for LHH HR's).

  • Oakland is absoutly hitting crushing lefties, Robbie Ray has historically struggled significantly more with RHH's.

  • I think wind in general is one of the most over looked things in MLB and especially in Yankees stadium, if wind is going to be blowing out to right 10+ MPH we would want to focus on LHH's but Montgomery is actually nutty against LHH's so lets look at Garcia....ah yes he struggles with LHH's (.222 ISO,53.8% HC, 50% HR/FB) *only 21 batter sample size*. So give me Mike Ford & DJ (someone who hits oppo well).

Bets

  • TB @ LAA Run to be scored in the first inning (-115)

  • OAK F5 -0.5 (+105)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • One of Joey Wendel or Brandon Lowe - Wendle in 2021 against RHP has: 41.1% HC, .258 ISO, and a 38% Fly Ball rate. Lowe in 2021 against RHP has a .250 ISO & 45.7 Fly ball rate. Honerable mention Austin Meadows.

  • Mike Ford/ DJ LeMahieu.

  • Sean Murphy/ Ramon Laureno.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • LAA

  • MIL

  • WAS - Would say Boston would be chalkier here but with the PPD yesterday I think alot of ownership will be scared off of BOS (Makes for a great play if you think they get the game in).

GPP:

  • TB - A one off of one of the Lefties (Lowe,Wendle, Meadows) if you think Ohtani struggles early and gets it together, if you think the wheels fall off and hope they get extended time vs a bad BP thats a decent angle as well.

  • NYY

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Yu Darvish

  • Shane Bieber

  • Freddy Peralta

GPP:

  • JT Brubaker

  • Martin Perez

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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