05/07/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes
05/07
Slate Overview:
14 Games
Weather Concerns:
Rain Watch:
BOS @ BAL
CIN @ CLE
MIN @ DET
WIND:
WAS @ NYY – Wind blowing in 10+ MPH.
ARI @ NYM – Wind blowing out 10+ MPH.
SEA @ TEX – Wind blowing in 12-15 MPH (check for roof status).
SD @ SF – Wind blowing out to right center 12-15 MPH.
Things that stand out to me:
Rays K% vs LHP, Arizona’s ISO v LHPs
Skubal’s numbers are badddddddd.
Which Corbin are we going to get today?
Snell & Rondon in tough matchup for their handedness, interesting if you have conviction on either one it will keep some ownership off of them.
Griffin Canning has good underlying numbers but has let up a few bombs and it has made his stats look way worse; I would only play a one off from the dodgers.
Bets
MIA -0.5 F5 (-125)
SFG ML F5 (+115)
DFS
Home Run Call(S):
Akil Baddoo -This is a get right spot for Baddoo, Shoemaker in 50 TBF (Total Batters Faced) against LHH has a 6.01 xFIP,29.4% HR/FB, 42% HC, 42.5 FB. Baddoo on the year against RHPs in 57 at bats has: 45.5% HC, .386 ISO, 45.5% FB. Only thing that is annoying is that Detroit’s stadium is in the bottom 5 for park effects for LHHs.
Mitch Garver – Garver on the year is hitting LHP’s to the tune of: 56.3% HC,.355 ISO, 62.5% FB. Skubal this year and historically has been dramatically worse against RHHs, on the year Skubal has a 8.24 xFIP, 20.5% HR/FB, 66.2 FB%.
Carson Kelly - Against LHP's this year he has a .563 ISO,52.9% HC, and 41.2% FB%, Peterson is allowing a 45.5% HR/FB% & .271 ISO against RHPs.
Stacks:
Chalk/Cash:
ATL
NYY
MIN
GPP:
STL – The Cardinals are only striking out 17% of the time to LHPs this year& have a very nice .190 team average ISO, Gomber has a 15% BB rate, 5.44 SIERA, and 40% HC rate on the year. (Focus Dylan Carlson, Paul DeJong, Harrison Bader, Paul Goldschmidt
ARI – Could be personal bias but Peterson seems like a fraud so far, he has some good numbers but allows 34% HC & 1.86 HR/9, Arizona on the year is absolutely crushing LHPs with a .225 team ISO and only 20% team strike out rate. Focus RHHs against Peterson (Carson Kelly, Eduardo Escobar, Asdrubal Cabrera).
HOU
Pitching:
Chalk/Cash:
Trevor Rogers
Jack Flaherty
Blake Snell – Probably going to fade Snell, SF does very well against LHP’s.
Charlie Morton
GPP:
Carlos Rondon – KC has been awful against LHP’s over the last 14 days (Bottom 3 in On Base + Slugging) just don’t strike out that often to them on the season.
Sean Manaea – Depending on the lineup the Rays roll out there they can have up to 6 people that strike out 30%+ to LHPs.
Chris Flexin
Sources:
https://paydirt.ghost.io
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com
https://www.fangraphs.com
https://www.addmorefunds.com