Updated: May 10, 2021
TEX @ SFG – Wind blowing out 10 MPH to right center.
CIN @ PIT – Wind blowing out 5-10 MPH to center.
Things that stand out to me:
I love smaller slates, usually I love them because there is usually 1 go to stud pitcher or stack that will garner a massive amount of the ownership. However, that is not the case tonight (could make the case for Boston and Alex Wood) but everything seems to be reasonably distributed tonight. For slates like this with a bunch of mid-range pitchers I would suggest doing 3 max and having some exposure to multiple pitchers.
When you look up GPP Pitcher in the dictionary I’m fairly sure there is a picture of Mitch Keller, Keller either crushes value or gets crushed and there is seemingly little in between.
Junior Guerra was declared the starter while typing this so don’t roster Jose Suarez.
Holloway doesn’t have much data on him but has a high xFIP against LHH.
Think less 5-man stacks and more 4 man and hitters in good spots on smaller slates like this.
Hou -0.5 F5 (-125)
Kyle Gibson to have at least 6 K’s (+108)
Home Run Call(S):
BOS – (J.D., Devers, Bogaerts, Verdugo)
HOU – Love the Astros today, the lack of info on the pitchers and the BP will keep some ownership off of them.
MIA – They burned me in a nice spot the other night so I’m going back to the well, if they have Aguilar in the lineup, I like them for a small stack given a shorter slate and few places to get low ownership (Duval,Aguilar,Diaz,Anderson).
Tyler Mahle – Drastically worse against RHH, on the year he’s giving up: .348 ISO, 30.8% HR/FB, 43.8% Hard Contact rate to RHHs compared to a .062 ISO, 5.3% HR/FB to LHHs.
Kyle Gibson – Is not going to garner much ownership relative to Wood/Mahle because of his tougher matchup. Gibson has a lower 21.8% K rate but some of that can be made up for in the Giants 28% k rate to RHPs. All of Gibson’s other stats look great no real eye-popping numbers, also in the second-best part for pitchers……I would check if they have fans in attendance though there was some area they opened up last year that caused Oracle Park to have HR #’s close to Coors Field….but that was when there were no fans in attendance.
Jorge Lopez – Not somewhere that I am going unless I directly want to fade Boston. Jorge is interesting for a few reasons: Leverage off of Boston stacks, a SIERA a full 2 points below this ERA indicating he may have some positive regression heading his way. Things that are odd to me….Lopez has a 2.39 HR/9 (this will regress, that’s wild) but only a 24.7% Hard Contact rate….I guess when he does get hit hard its absolutely crushed? High FIP but low SIERA….I’m going to take the SIERA side of things here (has been proven to be more predictive, https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-the-relative-value-of-fip-xfip-and-siera/)