05/11/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

05/11

Slate Overview:

  • 12 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • Rain:

  • SDP @ COL

  • TOR @ ATL

  • BAL @ NYM

  • Wind:

  • PHI @ WAS – Wind blowing in 5-8 MPH.

  • OAK @ BOS – Wind blowing out to right 10-15 MPH.

  • KCR @ DET – Wind blowing out to center 5-10 MPH.

  • BAL @ NYM – Wind blowing in 10-12 MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Ohtani now has a 22.6% BB% and that paired with Houston only striking out 19% of the time and having a team average .182 ISO against RHPs could spell trouble for Ohtani. Having the 3rd highest SIERA on the slate and giving up 36.4% hard contact are also factors working against Ohtani.

  • Luis Patino is scheduled to open for the Rays tonight and Ryan Yarbrough is projected to be the long reliever, Yarbrough has flashed his upside that he had last year but he has had multiple instances this season giving up 5+ runs in relief, also gives me an excuse to play $3.7K Luke Voit coming off of the IL today.

Bets

  • TOR @ ATL F5 o5 (-115)

  • TOR F5 -0.5 (+105)

  • Marcus Stroman u6.5 K’s (-150)

  • HOU -0.5 1st inning (+230)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Luke Voit – In 2020 Voit in 48 AB’s against LHPs (Targeting Yarbrough) had 6 HRs a .375 ISO and .604 SLG.

  • Yasmani Grandal

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • SDP – I never play Coors but feel free.

  • WAS – (Soto, Turner, Gomes, Bell)

  • BOS

GPP:

  • HOU – (Yordan, Tucker, Brantley, Altuve)

  • TOR – (Kirk, Vlad, Bichette, Semien)

  • NYY – If Yarbrough is the PLR today the Yanks could do some damage and not be popping in projection models because of the opener in Patino. (Voit, Higashioka, Odor, Judge Sanchez)

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Freddy Peralta

  • Walker Buehler

  • Brady Singer

GPP:

  • Pablo Lopez – Arizona is significantly better against LHPs and that works in Lopez’s favor tonight with Arizona only hitting for a team average .147 ISO. Lopez has a great soft contact rate of 26.40% and only allowing .68 HR/9.

  • Robbie Ray – Always a little scary rostering Robbie because of his weakness in giving up the long ball, but he is in a great GPP spot tonight going up against Atlanta. The Braves are striking out 27% of the time to LHPs on the year while only have a team avg ISO of .129. Robbie’s cheep price tan and high K upside makes him a nice GPP play for me.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://Statmuse.com

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com



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