05/12/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

05/12

Slate Overview:

  • 10 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • Rain:

  • Oak @ BOS

  • Wind:

  • SEA @ LAD - Wind blowing out 6-8 MPH.

  • TOR @ ATL - Wind blwing from left to right 10 MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • Justin Dunn’s xFIP and SIERA are extremely high relative to his ERA, he’s had a few starts so far where he should have gotten lit up so far but has not.

  • Detroit’s K% and ISO against LHPs, DET did just get Nomar Marza back in the lineup so should be a little more respectable moving forward.

  • Jose Urquidy has some ugly underlying numbers LAA could be a nice low owned stack.

  • Happ/Gant/Lester all have simular situations to Dunn and have very high SIERAs and FIPs relative to their ERAs.

  • Max Fried started off the year horribly and played while injured, his #’s might keep some ownership off of him and he is dirt cheap just in a tough matchup against Toronto who is hitting lefties to the tune of a .166 ISO. Might have some carryover ownership from people trying to get both Gerrit Cole and good bats in their lineup.

Bets

  • KCR F5 -0.5 (-110)

  • BOS ML & NYY ML Parlay for (+155)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Teoscar Hernandez – PayDirt’s model (Can be found here) absolutely loves him. Even though I think Fried has a decent day James’ computer might have a bigger brain than me.

  • Luke Voit – Reference last night’s post....even though DK is annoying and priced him at $4.9K tonight when he was $3.7K last night.

  • Andrew Vaughn.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • PHI - (Hoskins, Realmuto, Bohm).

  • BOS - (Devers, Xander, Chavis).

  • ARI - IRT has risn a full run since the opening line.

  • MIL – I never enjoy playing MIL but Tyrone Taylor is 2.1K and will be batting in the heart of the lineup against a pitcher with negative regression coming his way.

GPP:

  • CWS - (Vaughn, Grandal,Mercedes)

  • NYY – Well Yarbrough didn’t go last night but is projected again to be the PLR so all statements from last night are a go for tonight.

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Gerrit Cole - Gerrit Cole is gonna Gerrit Cole, and what I mean by that is he will let up 2-3 runs by the long ball but will strike out 8-12 to make up for that. At his 12K price tag I am much more inclined to go Woodruff at a discount and use the money elsewhere.

  • Julio Urias - Probably gonna fade Urias here and maybe even take Kyle Lewis as a 1 off for some leverage.

  • Brandon Woodruff

GPP:

  • Danny Duffy - Never been a huge Duffy fan but he is serviceable tonight, and he checks two boxes: 1. He is a LHP 2. He is going up against the Detriot Tigers.

  • Max Fried - Has an ERA of 8.44 but has an xFIP of 3.82 & 3.86 SIERA meaning he is due for some MAJOR positive regression. Max has a high swinging strike rate, low contact%, and low hard contact rate all of these factors make him a viable gpp play in my eyes.

  • Hyun Jin-Ryu - I think his ownership has risen from when I started writing this but Atlanta is really struggling to hit LHPs this year and I like him tonight for the same reasons I loved Robbie Ray last night.

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