05/22/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

05/22

Slate Overview:

  • Games:

  • 7 Early

  • 6 Main

  • Weather Concerns

  • Early:

  • HOU@TEX - Wind blowing in 12-15 MPH

  • BAL@WAS - Wind blowing from left to right 8-10 MPH.

  • DET@KC - Wind blowing out to left 8-12 MPH. (Watch for rain)

  • Main:

  • LAD@SF - Wind blowing out to center 12-15 MPH.

  • SEA@SD - Wind blowing from left to right 8-12 MPH.

Early Pitching Breakdown:

Main Pitching Breakdown:

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • Last 2-week team hitting data here.

  • So did we get the juiced balls back last night?

  • ATL will be chalk with last night's performance and now going up against a pitcher that is prone to getting blown up I can't say that I blame people for going there.

Bets

  • WAS o4.5 (-130)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • (Early)

  • Andrew Stevenson - Stevenson not in the starting LU so swap that to Alex Kirilloff Paydirts model loves him today (check it out here)

  • Juan Soto.

  • One of Nick Castellanos or Tyler Stephenson.

  • One of Jesus Aguliar or Adam Duvall.

  • (Main)

  • Almost don't wanna call it because of how unreal his stats are against LHPs they can't stay like this but. Mike Zunino - against LHPs this season has a .531 ISO, 58.3% FB rate, and 243 wRC+.

  • Fernando Tatis Jr. - has a .412 ISO, 44.4% Hard Contact rate against LHPs on the year.

  • Rafael Devers

  • Since we did 3 that are expensive last yolo HR call would be Juan Lafares.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash (Early):

  • WAS

  • ATL

  • KC - Gonna fade KC here over the past 2 weeks their team-hitting stats have taken a pretty big hit.

GPP (Early):

  • MIA - Joey Lucchesi was recently named the starter for today's matchup so MIA might not have the ownership they should, MIA has been significantly better against LHPs this year 4 people with ISO's over.250 (Jazz, Aguilar, Duvall, Cooper) Lucchesi gives up a lot more power to RHHs.

  • CLE

Chalk/Cash (Main):

  • TBR

  • STL

  • PHI

GPP (Main):

  • SDP

  • TOR

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash (Early):

  • Shane Bieber

  • Lance McCullers Jr.

  • Brady Singer

GPP (Early):

  • Sonny Gray - Yeah I hate PvT but Gray dominates the Brew Crew historically (2.49 Era, 66 K's in 50 IP), and it's The Brew Crew statistically in the bottom 3 for team hitting on the year.

  • Matthew Boyd - He's cheap, has league average K stuff, and KC has been struggling at the plate lately.

Chalk/Cash (Main):

  • Robbie Ray - Wild to me that Robbie will be chalk against the red hot Rays in Dunedin (practically a little league park), the Rays do strike out a ton vs LHPs and Ray has looked great on the season I just don't think that it warrants paying 9.5K for a guy that is playing in Coors Jr. and known for letting up bombs.

  • Walker Buehler

  • Adbert Alzolay

GPP (Main):

  • Shane McClanahan - McClanahan is electric and has big K upside but is prone to the long ball and playing in Duendin isn't going to help that either. The Blue Jays have the potential to roll out 5 hitters striking out over 30% of the time to LHPs. So if he can get lucky and avoid a nuke from Hernanzed/Grichuk he could have a nice night at a cheap price tag.

  • Chris Bassitt - LAA without Trout is a team I'm going to pick on a decent amount Ohtani and Walsh are the only ones on LAA with decent power splits against RHPs this year.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://statmuse.com

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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