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05/25/2021 MLB DFS News & Notes

Updated: May 25, 2021

05/25

Slate Overview:

  • 13 Games

  • Weather Concerns:

  • CIN@WAS - Wind blowing out to left 5-8 MPH.

  • TOR@NYY - Wind blowing right to left 10+ MPH.

  • COL@NYM - Wind blowing out to right 12-15 MPH.

  • ATL@BOS - Wind blowing out to center 15+ MPH.

  • CLE@DET - Wind blowing in 10-12 MPH.

  • BAL@MIN - Wind blowing out to center 15+ MPH.

  • STL@CWS - (Watch for rain) Wind blowing out to left 15+ MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • Last 2-week team hitting data (here).

  • The wind is going to make a big impact today make sure to take that into consideration.

  • Garrett Richards has been getting pretty lucky as indicated by his 4.64 SIERA compared to his 3.72 ERA, and if any team is gonna correct that it would be the red hot Braves. The Braves have a .200 ISO on the year against RHPs, they have also been disciplined at the plate earning a 10% BB rate to RHPs which pairs well with Richards' very high 10.6% BB rate.

  • Cole Irvin & Corey Kluber seem to be in a similar situation to Richards.

Bets

  • Parlay Rays F5 & Twins F5 -0.5 (+200)

  • OAK o4.5 (-115)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • One of Miguel Sano/ Alex Kirilloff - in 2021 against RHPs Kirilloff has a 56% HC rate, .344 ISO, and a 48% Fly Ball rate and Sano has a .261 ISO and 65% FB rate. While facing 66 LHHs on the year Kremer has allowed a .303 ISO, 26.3 ISO, and 50% FB rate. While I know Sano is a RHH he is legit the lowest I've ever seen a homerun prop before (+150 (Bovada implying there is a 45% chance of him hitting a HR tonight), for reference Acuna (the MLB leader in HR's) is +300 every night.

  • One of Brandon Lowe/ Austin Meadows - Medows against RHPs this year has; .318 ISO, 38% HC, 56.1% Fly Ball Rate. Lowe against RHPs this year has; .265 ISO and a 40.3% Flyball rate. On the year Brad Keller is allowing a .208 ISO, 39% Hard contact, and a 19% HR/FB%.

Stacks: