05/25/2021 MLB DFS News & Notes

Updated: May 26, 2021

05/25

Slate Overview:

  • 13 Games

  • Weather Concerns:

  • CIN@WAS - Wind blowing out to left 5-8 MPH.

  • TOR@NYY - Wind blowing right to left 10+ MPH.

  • COL@NYM - Wind blowing out to right 12-15 MPH.

  • ATL@BOS - Wind blowing out to center 15+ MPH.

  • CLE@DET - Wind blowing in 10-12 MPH.

  • BAL@MIN - Wind blowing out to center 15+ MPH.

  • STL@CWS - (Watch for rain) Wind blowing out to left 15+ MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • Last 2-week team hitting data (here).

  • The wind is going to make a big impact today make sure to take that into consideration.

  • Garrett Richards has been getting pretty lucky as indicated by his 4.64 SIERA compared to his 3.72 ERA, and if any team is gonna correct that it would be the red hot Braves. The Braves have a .200 ISO on the year against RHPs, they have also been disciplined at the plate earning a 10% BB rate to RHPs which pairs well with Richards' very high 10.6% BB rate.

  • Cole Irvin & Corey Kluber seem to be in a similar situation to Richards.

Bets

  • Parlay Rays F5 & Twins F5 -0.5 (+200)

  • OAK o4.5 (-115)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • One of Miguel Sano/ Alex Kirilloff - in 2021 against RHPs Kirilloff has a 56% HC rate, .344 ISO, and a 48% Fly Ball rate and Sano has a .261 ISO and 65% FB rate. While facing 66 LHHs on the year Kremer has allowed a .303 ISO, 26.3 ISO, and 50% FB rate. While I know Sano is a RHH he is legit the lowest I've ever seen a homerun prop before (+150 (Bovada implying there is a 45% chance of him hitting a HR tonight), for reference Acuna (the MLB leader in HR's) is +300 every night.

  • One of Brandon Lowe/ Austin Meadows - Medows against RHPs this year has; .318 ISO, 38% HC, 56.1% Fly Ball Rate. Lowe against RHPs this year has; .265 ISO and a 40.3% Flyball rate. On the year Brad Keller is allowing a .208 ISO, 39% Hard contact, and a 19% HR/FB%.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • MIN - The Twins have 5 hitters in 2021 with an ISO over .200 (Kepler, Cruz, Kirilloff, Sano, Garver) While Dean Kremer struggles with hitters of both handedness he gives up more power to LHHs so if you were to 3 man this is would focus on Kirillof and Kepler).

  • CLE - Listen I know Skubal isn't great but CLE without Reyes just isn't the same (not that they were a force before he got hurt) they can put up some runs against a bad pitcher just not sure that I would want to target a weak team into a lot of ownership when there are 26 total teams to pick from tonight.

  • NYY - Havnt been high on the Yanks since Stanton/ Hicks hit the IL but they should put up a few today I'd consider them for a 3 man stack.

GPP:

  • OAK - One of Seattle's top pitching prospects Logan Gilbert is struggling in his stent in the majors, while he has promise long term he probably needs to go back down and work on some of his stuff. I would focus (Leureno, Canha, Olson, Brown).

  • TBR - With Ji-Man Choi rejoining the roster the Rays have found new life and are tearing the cover off the ball against RHPs, 5 hitters with over a .200 iso (Meadows, Wendle, Lowe, Zunino, Choi). Brad Keller allows very similar ISOs to betters of both handednesses but gives up a higher wOBA to RHHs compared to a higher HR/FB% to LHHs.

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Max Scherzer

  • Jacob deGrom - Don't get fancy

  • Andrew Heaney

GPP:

  • Kevin Gausman - Well it appears the DK algo was drinking on the job when it priced Gausman today. Gausman is striking batters out at a 30% clip and all of his underlying numbers look good & that paired with all of the Diamondbacks team hitting stats taking a significant dive over the past 2 weeks puts him clearly in play on my radar.

  • Joe Musgrove - Well MIL got to Snell yesterday but I think that was in large part due to Snell, Musgrove is pretty expensive for DK but is almost free on Fanduel if you play there.

  • Corbin Martin - Martin is definitely the risky option tonight but he is the key that allows you to unlock deGrom and some decent bats. If you roster him be ready for either 15-20 or negative points.

  • Kyle Freeland - If Martin is too risky for ya Freeland is going up against a Mets team with a bunch of randoms playing tonight, it got so bad owner Steve Cohen joked about it on Twitter last night. Freeland has never been a big K guy but maybe going up against a JV roster and his first time using the new de-juiced balls he can find some luck. (he also gets the magical powers that any pitcher gets when they play the Mets while deGrom is pitching).

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://statmuse.com

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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