06/24/2021 MLB DFS News and Notes

06/24

Slate Overview:

  • Games: 8 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • ATL @ CIN - Wind blowing in 5-7 MPH.

  • HOU @ DET - Wind blowing in 12-15 MPH.

  • CLE @ MIN - Wind blowing out to right 6-9 MPH.

  • PIT @ STL - Wind blowing out to left 12- 15 MPH.

  • CHC @ LAD - Wind blowing out to right 5-7 MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • Last 2 weeks hitting data here.

  • Zach Davies has been getting lucky and is due for some negative regression.

  • Luis Garcia looks mispriced on DK.

  • J.C Mejia looks like he has some positive regression heading his way.

  • The Dodgers team TT has moved up a full run since it opened.

  • Chad Khul's xFIP is really high probably going to see a blow-up game soon.

  • Jose Berrios might catch a lot of ownership on a slate with bad pitching, he reallllllyyyy struggles with LHHs and there will be at least 6 of them in Cleveland's lineup tonight.

Bets

  • ATL @ CIN o10.5 & HOU ML (+150)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Nick Castellanos - Tomlin is allowing a .237 ISO to RHH this year along with a 45% Hard Contact rate, and 38% Fly Ball rate. Cincinnati is the #2 ball park for RHH's in terms of fantasy points added. Castellanos is crushing RHPs with a .254 ISO & 49% Hard Contact rate. (Winker also could crush one)

  • Lars Nootbaar - Pause.....I'm not joking....wish I was but Edman and Carlson both stinks against RHP's and Chad Khul is going to implode and he gets waxed by LHHs comparatively. Nootbar has a .600 ISO in his very limited stent in the majors, having high xSLG and no homeruns is one of my favorite things to look for when trying to find a home run call.

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • TOR - Toronto will be the chalkiest stack on the slate and I can see why Dean Kremer has been dreadful. This season Kremer has a 5.17 xFIP is allowing a .277 ISO to LHHs and a .227 ISO to RHHs. I would focus (Semien, Bichette, Guerro Jr).

  • HOU - Houston absolutely demolished the slate last night as chalk and will look to repeat last night's performance against Jose Urena. Urena has a 5.27 xFIP which is absolutely awful but surprisingly isn't letting up that much power, a .144 ISO to RHH and .128 LHH. Urena has been getting a lot of ground balls and pitching to contact, that coupled with the winds blowing in 12-15 MPH might have me looking elsewhere for my main stack.

  • ATL - We don't have much data on Cincinnati's starting pitcher Tony Santillan but the little we do have isn't pretty. From the looks of his minor league numbers, it seems he struggles more with RHHs. His pitch arsenal consists of a fastball, change-up, and curve/knuckle curve when looking at how Atlanta's batters fair against those pitches I would focus on (Freddie Freeman, William Contreras, and Abraham Almonte).

GPP:

  • CIN - The thought of a game stack here is appealing to me, Tomlin has really struggled with RHHs Suarez and Castellanos are in smash spots IMO. Probably my favorite stack tonight given the complete lack of ownership. Tomlin scratched and 37 year old Jesse Chavez now on the bump.... still love the Reds.

  • LAD - Just like the Carlos Martinez implosion earlier in the year.......Davies has a 5.46 xFIP and 4.6 ERA he is going to see some regression soon. Davies is walking batters at an 11% clip and the dodgers are taking walks against RHPs at a 10.8% clip.

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Walker Buehler - Just like every other Dodger pitcher Buehler's spin rate is way down (3% on his curve and 10% on his slider). I'm just gonna stay away from Dodger pitchers until I can see a sample size without the sticky substances.

  • Luis Garcia - An affordable pitcher with a 28% K rate going up against a team with 7 people striking out over 25% of the time to RHH...yes, please. Worth noting that Garcia struggles with LHHs Baddoo could do some damage.

  • Anthony Kay - Kay has been AWFUL against LHH and dominant against RHH, if you are looking for a good one-off Cedric Mullins seems to be in a nice spot.

  • Nick Pivetta - Guy will end up with sub 10 points or 25-30, struggles with RHHs but the majority of the Rays are LHHs and 6 guys have K rates over 25% to RHHs. I'm leaning more on stacking against him than rostering him. If you do stack against I would look to Randy Arozarena, Mike Zunino, Austin Meadows, and Wander Franco.

GPP:

  • Cody Poteet - Poteet comes in at a very affordable price tag tonight going up against the Nationals. Poteet's 4.92 xFIP scares me but I think I found my edge, Poteet is significantly better against LHHs only allowing a .180 wOBA and .100 ISO compared to RHHs where he allows a .356 wOBA and .237 ISO and when you look at the roster National's roster their best hitters: Schwarber, Soto, and Bell are all LHHs and the RHHs have awful ISO's vs RHPs (.146,.130,.090.106,.102) so hopefully, this limits his downside.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://statmuse.com

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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