06/25/2021 MLB DFS News and Notes

06/25

Slate Overview:

  • Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • Rain:

  • ATL@CIN

  • HOU@DET ----- Postponed

  • PIT@STL

  • Wind:

  • ATL@CIN - Wind blowing in 10-12 MPH.

  • HOU@DET - Wind blowing in 15 MPH.

  • KC@TEX - Wind blowing in 15-17 MPH.

  • PIT@ATL - Wind blowing out to left 10+ MPH.

  • OAK@SF - Wind blowing out left 10-12 MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • Last 2 weeks hitting data here.

Bets

  • PIT ML (+151)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • James McCann (Not on the slate) - Moore has a 6.23 xFIP on the year and against RHHs is allowing a .358 ISO 40% Fly Ball rate, and 51.2% Hard contact rate. While McCann is crushing LHPs to the tune of a .314 ISO, 40% Fly Ball rate, and 60% Hard contact rate!

  • Tyler Stephenson - On the year Stephenson is crushing LHPs with a .350 ISO 38% Fly Ball rate, and 55.2% Hard Contact rate. (honorable mention Aquino & Castellanos).

  • FTJ

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • ATL - Vladimir Gutierrez looks to be due for some negative regression and with Acuna being back in the lineup today we might see the scary Braves instead of whatever that was that we saw last night. Gutierrez almost exclusively throws a fastball and a slider, all the Braves have every good power-hitting numbers against the fastball but those numbers drop drastically against the slider. I would focus on (Acuna, Swanson, Freeman).

  • TOR - The dark knight was able to get away with some decent games to start the year but has come down-to-earth sense. George Springer is still miss priced...if you are going to eat the chalk with Toronto I would focus on (Semien, Guerrero Jr, Springer).

  • NYY - I keep seeing the Yankees as chalk and it keeps making me laugh.......the lineup they are rolling out today has some awful power-hitting numbers against LHPs...here are their ISOs (LeMahieu .106, Voit .100, Torres .081, Andujar .071, Frazier .065) only ones with respectable power numbers against LHPs are Judge and Sanchez. Perez is significantly worse against RHHs so they do have that working in their favor.

GPP:

  • CIN - Wind blowing in is no fun but Smyly's 5.30 xFIP and .344 ISO allowed to LHHs and .210 ISO to RHHs are gonna get him in trouble. I would focus on (Castellanos, Stephenson, Votto, Aquino, Winker).

  • SDP - While Martin has flashed potential he gets rocked by the longball focus on RHHs.

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Carlos Rondon - Seattle as a team is striking out at a 28% clip to LHPs, which pairs nicely with Rondon's wild 36.6% K Rate. As always he will probably let up a solo shot or two but will make up for it with 8+ K's.

  • Chris Paddack - Arizona has just cratered since the start of the year, Paddack will have a sweet matchup going up against a team with only a .130 team average ISO and also strikes out 25% of the time to RHPs. Paddack's 1.27 HR/9 is a little high but shouldn't be a major concern.

  • Mike Minor - Minor has turned back the clock and looked sharp in KC, Texas really struggles against LHPs with a team average.132 ISO and 5 people striking out over 25% of the time to LHPs. Garcia, Gallo, Culberson have good numbers against LHPs buy the rest of the team is beyond bad that he should be able to cruise through most of the lineup.

  • Pablo Lopez - Pablo has some very good numbers all around just lets up a little too much power to RHHs. With only 4 hitters in the low 20% K range to RHPs, this matchup doesn't seem too enticing for upside purposes maybe if he was a little cheaper than $9.3K I would be interested. Old man Ryan Zimmerman will probably take him deep.

GPP:

  • Alek Manoah - Manoah comes in at a very affordable $8.1K and has been great against RHHs and has struggled with LHHs this year Mullins & Stewart are the only people I would worry about on this Baltimore lineup. Baltimore has 6 people striking out 23% or more of the time to RHPs. Baltimore is also striking out 4% more over the past 2 weeks compared to their season average. His HR/9 is scary though.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://statmuse.com

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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