06/29/2021 MLB DFS News and Notes

06/29

Slate Overview:

  • Games: 15 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • MIA@PHI - Wind blowing out to right field 8-10 MPH.

  • SDP@CIN - Rain

  • DET@CLE - Rain - Wind blowing out to right field 8-10 MPH.

  • MIN@CHW - Rain

  • PIT@COL - Rain - Wind blowing out to left field 9-12 MPH.

  • TEX@OAK - Wind blowing out to center 10+ MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • The last 2 weeks hitting data here.

  • Absolutely MASSIVE slate, don't get too cute....you don't really need to, ownership will naturally be spread out.

  • Zach Davies xFIP & SIERA are literally popping off the page...negative regression incoming.

  • The Cubs are striking out 7% more over the last 14 days compared to their team season average.

  • The Rangers over the last 14 days are striking out 5.4% less than their season average.

  • CIN/CWS/NYY/CHC/SLT team power-hitting numbers are way down the past 14 days.

Bets

  • Parlay ATL ML/TBR ML/MIL ML (+350)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Shohei Ohtani

  • Keston Hiura

  • Wander Franco

  • One of Castellanos/Stephenson/ Aquino

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • SDP - Welp list time I stacked against Santillan and looked pretty dumb with him going 6 innings 3 hits 1 ER with 8K's, but I can't let that haunt me because Santillan has a 6.17 xFIP and 14% BB% ( Could see Pham get walked multiple times with a few stolen bases). So if ur looking at his underlying numbers Santillan has some major regression coming his way and I don't mind the Padres playing in the 2nd most hitter-friendly park in all of the MLB. Santillan struggles more with LHH's so I would focus (Cronenworth, Grisham, Caratini, Hosmer) and throw in FTJ or Pham.

  • COL - Welp...Chase De Jong is a trash pitcher going into Coors.....fun....De Jong has a 6.42 xFIP is allowing ISOs over .270 to both RHHs and LHHs, allowing 54% Flyballs and 44% Hard contact. The thing is the Rockies aren't very good with Story/Nunez/McMahon being the only hitters with an iso over .150 against RHHs this year. Like always I'm just going to fade (maybe have a one-off) and pray.

  • PIT - German Marquez with the exception of the implosion day has a pretty nice season with a 4.11 xFIP, only a 25% Fly Ball rate. Marquez has been particularly dominant against RHHs. The only problem I see is Marquez's 10% BB rate and PIT's first 4 hitters having a very high wOBA and Hayes/ Reynolds having BB%'s over 13%.

  • MIA - Velasquez is one of the guys I can never get right, He has a high xFIP and is bad against RHHs but has been good against LHHs. Don't like Miami that much considering Jazz and Jesus Sanchez are big parts of this offense and LHHs.

GPP:

  • TBR - John Ross has had a decent year but historically struggles with LHH more and boy the Rays have more LHH than you should shake a stick at. Rays are crushing RHPs this season with 5 hitters over a .200 ISO (also strike out ridiculously against them) so Rays will be a big-time boom or bust.

  • BOS - The Red Sox opened with an Implied Run Total of 6 runs and that line has been bet up to 6.4 since. While his ISO numbers he allows aren't good or awful the thing I see jumping out is his wOBA and BB%, Keller is really just struggling to keep people off the bases. Bostons 2-4 hitters have extremely good wOBAs against RHPs.

  • ATL - Megil has very limited data on him but I really want to stack against him and any time you can get ATL at reduced ownership ill take that.

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Brandon Woodruff - I mentioned earlier that the Cubbies are striking out 7% more than their season average over the last 14 Days....here's the kicker the Cubs already were striking out 26.5% of the time to RHPs. So it looks like Woodruff is in a juicy spot for strikeouts tonight. As always the Cubbies do have some pop with a team average .180 ISO against RHPs.

  • Robbie Ray - Ray gets to face the Mariners tonight who are striking out almost 28% of the time to LHPs and that pairs pretty dang well with his 31% K rate. Ray should rack up the K's tonight but his 2.01 HR/9 is cause for concern knowing that he is prone to giving up a few moon shots and the park being in the bottom 6 for pitchers is doing him no favors tonight.

  • Lucas Giolito - Probably not going to find myself playing Gio against a team that swings for the fences, just like last time he will give up the runs but get a decent amount of K's.

  • Blake Snell - Cin's power numbers have been bad the last 2 weeks but for a team, with only 3 people striking out more than 20% to LHPs I don't think the risk/reward is there for playing snell.

GPP:

  • Charlie Morton - Morton has a 3.72 xFIP, almost 28% K rate, only 25% Fly Ball rate, and gets to go up against the Mets who only have a team average .142 ISO against RHHs and are striking out 24% to RHHs.

  • Andrew Heaney - If you haven't noticed by now I like picking on the yanks, Heaneys a great GPP pitcher he is prone to the long ball (scary going up against NYY) but also has great strikeout stuff (30% K rate) and NYY will toll out a Lineup tonight that has 6 batters who strike out 24% or more of the time to LHPs and 5 hitters with ISOs below.100 against LHPs. If Heaney can get through Judge/Sanchez he should be in a nice spot tonight.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://statmuse.com

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

https://www.fantasylabs.com/mlb/vegas/

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