08/09/2021 MLB DFS News & Notes

08/09

Slate Overview:

  • Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • CIN@CLE - Watch weather, 10+ MPH wins blowing out to center field.

  • MIL@CHC - Watch weather could PPD, 10-12 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.

  • CWS@MIN - Wind blowing in 10+ MPH.

  • NYY@KC - Wind blowing out to left field 10+ MPH.

  • Things that stand out to me:

  • Last 2 weeks hitting data here.

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Rowdy Tellez - Tellez over the L30 has a .306 ISO/52.3% Fly Ball Rate/ and 47.7% Hard Contact Rate against RHPs, during that same period Mills has allowed a .268 ISO/ 41.7 hard Contact Rate to LHHs.

  • Kyle Farmer - On the season Kyle farmer has a .274 ISO & 52% Hard Contact Rate against LHPs...does have a low FB% so could be double SZN. On the season Hentges has allowed a .234 ISO & 38% Hard Contact Rate to RHHs.

  • Eloy Jimenez

CIN@CLE

  • Hentges

  • Is walking batters at a 13% clip this year and seems to struggle more with RHHs (allowing a .457 wOBA & .234 ISO) over the L30 CIN 3-6 hitters haven't been able to hit LHPs well but it is a small sample size, Farmer and Suarez have hit LHPs well in that time frame. I would focus on India, Farmer, Suarez.

  • Castillo

  • After a rough start to the season, Castillo has seemed to find himself. Over the L30 days, Castillo has a 3.55 xFIP, 30% K rate, and 60% GB rate.....his 12% BB Rate is concerning though. The Indians will most likely have 4 hitters with a K rate over 24% against RHPs in the lineup tonight. If you want anyone from the Indians I would only recommend Jose Ramirez or Bradley Zimmer.

MIL@CHC

  • Peralta

  • Got to keep an eye on the weather in this game, Peralta seems to be in a sweet spot.... whatever this thing is that the Cubs call a roster is hardly an excuse for a major league team. Ortega has been a present surprise but Peralta has been dominant against LHHs this year. Only concern would be Contreras/Wisdom. The Cubs have 4 hitters that are striking out over 30% of the time to RHPs over the L30.

  • Mills

  • Mills has some negative regression coming his way......he has a 5.13 xFIP and only a 10% k rate over the L30. Mills struggles ALOT more with LHHs. (Yelich and Wong both stink against RHPs this year though) I would focus on Escobar/Narvarez/Tellez/Adames.

NYY@KC

  • Tallon

  • Over the L30 he has a 5.64 xFIP and his K% is down to 21%, he's not giving up much hard contact but he is giving up a lot of flyballs. If you want to play the negative regression angle I would focus on Perez/O'Hearn/Olivares.

  • Hernandez

  • Has had 2 good starts in a row but I think it was a complete fluke and has been matched up against some pretty bad lineups....with that being said the Yanks have only 2 people (Judge/Gallo) with an ISO over .200 against RHPs over the L30 and they have 6 Hitters with a K rate over 23% to RHPs in that same time frame. Hernandez will be the coinflip GPP play either will get shelled or have 8K's.

CWS@MIN

  • Giolito

  • Gio has been all over the place this year, he got beat up his last time out. Going up against the Twins Gio will be facing 6 batters that have a 22% or higher K rate to RHPs on the season but also 4 of those hitters have ISOs over .200. Gio gives up more power to RHHs but if the wheels fall off like his last start anyone would be viable IMO. I would focus on Jeffers, Polanco, Rooker, Kepler, Sano.

  • Burrows

  • Cant dive into him too deep since he's only expected to be out there for an inning or two but figures to be a BP day for the Tigers.

MIA@SD

  • Musgrove

  • Strikeout stuff is down recently but still respectable will be a popular play going up against a Miami team with 4 batters striking out over 27% of the time to RHPs this season. Over the L30 Aguilar/Brinson/Anderson have been hitting RHPs well. Musgrove is more susceptible to giving up power to LHHs...I could see Diaz seeking one out.

  • Thompson

  • Had a pretty rough start last time out....definitely a viable option today with only Machado/Cronenworth/Hosmer hitting RHPs well over the L30 days.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://statmuse.com

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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