CIN@CLE - Watch weather, 10+ MPH wins blowing out to center field.
MIL@CHC - Watch weather could PPD, 10-12 MPH winds blowing out to left-center.
CWS@MIN - Wind blowing in 10+ MPH.
NYY@KC - Wind blowing out to left field 10+ MPH.
Things that stand out to me:
Last 2 weeks hitting data here.
Home Run Call(S):
Rowdy Tellez - Tellez over the L30 has a .306 ISO/52.3% Fly Ball Rate/ and 47.7% Hard Contact Rate against RHPs, during that same period Mills has allowed a .268 ISO/ 41.7 hard Contact Rate to LHHs.
Kyle Farmer - On the season Kyle farmer has a .274 ISO & 52% Hard Contact Rate against LHPs...does have a low FB% so could be double SZN. On the season Hentges has allowed a .234 ISO & 38% Hard Contact Rate to RHHs.
Is walking batters at a 13% clip this year and seems to struggle more with RHHs (allowing a .457 wOBA & .234 ISO) over the L30 CIN 3-6 hitters haven't been able to hit LHPs well but it is a small sample size, Farmer and Suarez have hit LHPs well in that time frame. I would focus on India, Farmer, Suarez.
After a rough start to the season, Castillo has seemed to find himself. Over the L30 days, Castillo has a 3.55 xFIP, 30% K rate, and 60% GB rate.....his 12% BB Rate is concerning though. The Indians will most likely have 4 hitters with a K rate over 24% against RHPs in the lineup tonight. If you want anyone from the Indians I would only recommend Jose Ramirez or Bradley Zimmer.
Got to keep an eye on the weather in this game, Peralta seems to be in a sweet spot.... whatever this thing is that the Cubs call a roster is hardly an excuse for a major league team. Ortega has been a present surprise but Peralta has been dominant against LHHs this year. Only concern would be Contreras/Wisdom. The Cubs have 4 hitters that are striking out over 30% of the time to RHPs over the L30.
Mills has some negative regression coming his way......he has a 5.13 xFIP and only a 10% k rate over the L30. Mills struggles ALOT more with LHHs. (Yelich and Wong both stink against RHPs this year though) I would focus on Escobar/Narvarez/Tellez/Adames.
Over the L30 he has a 5.64 xFIP and his K% is down to 21%, he's not giving up much hard contact but he is giving up a lot of flyballs. If you want to play the negative regression angle I would focus on Perez/O'Hearn/Olivares.
Has had 2 good starts in a row but I think it was a complete fluke and has been matched up against some pretty bad lineups....with that being said the Yanks have only 2 people (Judge/Gallo) with an ISO over .200 against RHPs over the L30 and they have 6 Hitters with a K rate over 23% to RHPs in that same time frame. Hernandez will be the coinflip GPP play either will get shelled or have 8K's.
Gio has been all over the place this year, he got beat up his last time out. Going up against the Twins Gio will be facing 6 batters that have a 22% or higher K rate to RHPs on the season but also 4 of those hitters have ISOs over .200. Gio gives up more power to RHHs but if the wheels fall off like his last start anyone would be viable IMO. I would focus on Jeffers, Polanco, Rooker, Kepler, Sano.
Cant dive into him too deep since he's only expected to be out there for an inning or two but figures to be a BP day for the Tigers.
Strikeout stuff is down recently but still respectable will be a popular play going up against a Miami team with 4 batters striking out over 27% of the time to RHPs this season. Over the L30 Aguilar/Brinson/Anderson have been hitting RHPs well. Musgrove is more susceptible to giving up power to LHHs...I could see Diaz seeking one out.
Had a pretty rough start last time out....definitely a viable option today with only Machado/Cronenworth/Hosmer hitting RHPs well over the L30 days.