09/17 MLB Bets and DFS Picks



09/17

Bets

Pirates F5 (-120)

  1. Mitch Keller has been getting EXTREMELY unlucky as you can tell from the difference between his ERA and xFIP/SIERA. (1st photo)

  2. S/O Props aren't up yes but whatever it is I am taking it against the Mariners who have 5 players with over a 25% S/O rate and 3 over 35% against RHP on the season.

  3. Marco Gonzales (2nd Photo has been getting lucky)




Parlay: AZ ML,Red Sox ML (+131)


DFS

Home Run Call(S):

Eduardo Escobar

  • Escobar has a 49.3% Hard Contact rate against LHP this year as well as a .277 ISO and 44.4% Fly Ball rate.

  • Caleb Smith is giving up a whopping 58.8% Fly Ball rate as well as 17% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days.

  • Smith over the last 30 days has a 6.03 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA and on the season is giving up over a .250 ISO to both LHH and RHH.


Stacks:

The Chalk:

Mets

Twins

Red Sox


Contrarian Corner:

Diamondbacks

Indians

Braves


Pitching(DK):

The Chalk:

Justin Verlander

Ross Stripling

Yu Darvish


Contrarian Corner:

Martin Perez

Alex Young

Mitch Keller

Sony Gray


Positional Breakdown:

C:

Wilson Ramos

Mitch Garver

Roberto Perez

Christian Vazquez


1B:

Pete Alonso

Freddie Freeman

Matt Olson

Carlos Santana


2B:

Robinson Cano

Ketel Marte

Ozzie Albies

Jonathan Schoop


SS:

Xander Bogaerts

Francisco Lindor

Marcus Semien (Birthday Narrative too)

Bo Bichette


3B:

Miguel Sano

Nolan Arenado

Rafael Devers

Josh Donaldson

Matt Chapman


OF:

Michael Conforto

Nelson Cruz

Yasiel Puig

Jeff McNeil

Ronald Acuna Jr

J.D Martinez

Brandon Nimmo

Eddie Rosario


Value:

Marwin Gonzales,Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman, Jonathan Schoop, Michael Brantley, Robbie Grossman, Greg Anderson.


Weather:

Wind blowing in 10-12 MPH DET@CLE Wind blowing in 14-15 MPH CWS@MIN

Wind blowing out 6-10 MPH KC@OAK


Sources:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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