LeagueSZN is now upon us! I know I am excited and hope to have simular sucess to last season. Lets take a quick look at how Vegas and the public think this LPL season will play out (Source: Bovada).
If you like futures I think Team WE at +800 is insane value and EDG at +1800 is a decent darkhorse.
Anyways, on to tonights slate:
For this first slate it will be the Chinese League,the LPL, while I usually don't like 2 game slates I guess this will have to do. Tonights games (Best of 3 series) will be between:
Top Esports (-600) v Suning (+370); Map Kill O/U 29.5
TES Starters (369,Karsa,Knight,JackeyLove,Zhou)
Suning Starters (Bin,SofM,Angel,Huanfeng,ON)
This will be a rematch of the world semifinals, with that being said I don't think this will have simular results. We got to see TES in the Demacia Cup (Preseason Tournament) and JackeyLove looked as if he had found a completly new level and seemed to mesh well with new support Zhou.
During the offseason Suning lost arguably the best support in the world SwordArt, while support might not seem like the biggest differance it is known that SwordArt is one of the best IGL's or shotcallers. With the departure of SwordArt and very dramatic offseason for young ADC Huanfeng I expect Suning to take a bit to get back in the groove of things.
Oh My God (+350) v EDG (-575); Map Kill O/U 28.5
OMG Starters (New,AKi,Wuming,Eric,Cold)
EDG Starters (Flandre,*JieJie*,Scout,Viper,Meiko)
EDG made a move I love this season by making a switch from Hope and bringing in former HLE AD Carry Viper, while anyone who played LoL DFS probably remembers that HLE was abysmial in the LCK last year they would have to look at the stats and watch the games to see that Viper was pretty much being drug down by his team dispite his best efforts.
In the LPL DFS slates will be best of three unlike LEC/LCS last year with best of one series. With the best of three series you need to be weary of subtitutions that can happen, expecially early on in the season if a team is unsure which roster they want to go with. This is very applicable to EDG, during the offseason famed Jungler Clearlove UNretired and joined EDG, and if you remember EDG has had no hesitation to making substitutions at the jungle position in the past (last year it was a coin flip every series for JieJie and JunJia). I would steer away from JieJie in cash and maybe even play Clearlove in some massive gpps if you are looking to get weird.
OMG lost ICON and now has ex RW mid Wuming, ICON was a stud on a bad team in my opinion, Wuming and Eric are decent but I personally am going to play the wait and see game. Disclaimer: OMG did beat FPX last month in the Demacia Cup but FPX was without Nuguri.
(I know these are DUH picks but its hard to get to crazy on a 2 game slate with 2 -600 favorites)
Best way to approach the slate:
TES will be the most owned team on the slate and best option for cash, most builds will land you on JieJie or Karsa CPT but I think there is legitimate sub risk here and if you are forced to Zhou CPT might be safer.
Suning was known last year to play at a slower pace and give up less when they lost we will see if going up against one of the fastest paced teams in the league will bring up the Fantasy Pont Per Minute production or not.
Bin scored well in losses last year which makes him an intresting one off for large field GPP's.
Team Spot punt isnt always worth it you might want to go for the team with the best chance of a sweep, if you can get the +15 point team sweep bonus that is very difficult to make up for in cash games.