10/8/2020 LoL DFS

General

So Draftkings decided to throw us a bit of a curve ball for the second round of the Group stage, Instead of doing the traditional DFS Single Matchup approach they embraced the round robin format that League is using for the games. Each team will be playing 3 times thursday and you will accrue points from all 3 games, if you have played a playoff challenge think of it like that, this will be very intresting becuase most if not all sharks will not just be able to just jam their lineups in from optimizers so we need to practice some game theory to give ourselves the advantage on this slate. Assuming that the heavy favorites are going to be priced up we have to decide where to go for value and we obviously want to focus on people who perform well in wins but also those that perform well in losses.


Slate Overview (Players in the best matchups)

Liquid (+230) v G2 (-335) | o/u28.5

  • Tatical/Broxah/Jensen

  • Perkz/Wunder/Mikyx

Machi (+305) v Suning (-500) | o/u 25.5

  • PK/Bruce

  • SofM/Huanfeng/Swordart

G2 (-550) v Machi (+335) | o/u 29.5

  • Jankos/Perks/Caps/Mikyx

  • Gemini/Bruce

Suning (-335) v Liquid (+230) | o/u 23.5

  • Bin/Huanfeng

  • Impact/Tatical

Liqid (-185) v Machi (+135) |o/u 23.5

  • Broxah/Tatical/Jensen

  • Bruce/PK/Gemini

Suning (-115) v G2 (-120) |o/u 30.5

  • SofM/Huanfeng/Swordart

  • Perkz/Caps/Wunder

Summary

So going strictly off of odds Vegas believes that the slate will break down like this:

  • Machi (0-3)

  • Liquid (1-2)

  • Suning (2-1

  • G2 (3-0)

When they win G2 and Suning allow almost 12 and 10 kills respectivly to opposing teams as compared to to Machi's 6 and Team Liquids 5. This should come as no surprise since G2 is once of the bloodiest teams on the planet and Suning coming from the LPL.


One way to try and differentiate youself in any contest is going TOP or Jungle CPT to pair with your stacks expecially in this meta of carry tops/jungles i.g Camielle/Nidalee players can easily match or exceed the MID/ADC's fantasy scores and at a large discount on Draftkings. (Think Wunder SofM)


G2 will garner all of the ownership and rightfuly so but with their price tag you have to get creative with your build and who whould you pair with them? My initial thought would be Suning because of how well they generally score in loses but most of the field will be playing them as well since they are favored in most of their matchups.

  • SofM - We have seen his highscoring abilities already this tournament and he is far cheaper than any of the traditional "Carries" from any of the teams, he has dream matchups in multiple games.

  • Jensen - While 2 of their 3 games are tied for the lowest O/U on the board they are favored in one and perform decently in loses because of their limited deaths stemming from their reluctance to consistantly fight. Also if you believe that they have turned the corner and look to build off their recent win over G2 any upsets will come off the back of Jensen and Tatical.

  • Gemeni - If Machi are to steal and games away it will come of the back of Gemeni who has had a great showing so far and has respectable DFS performances in losses, also the cheapest jungler aviable.

  • Bin (Cash) - Less upside than others but has a much higher floor than other options.

Final thoughts, in cash games and smaller field GPPs get creative with a mix of G2 and Suning, for larger field GPPs look to get a few TL carries in the mix. I know it can be tempting to punt support but they are among the worst scorers in loses so I probably wouldnt recomend Koala or CoreJJ (unless large field gpp).


55 views