10/9/2020 LoL DFS

General

(Again) So Draftkings decided to throw us a bit of a curve ball for the second round of the Group stage, Instead of doing the traditional DFS Single Matchup approach they embraced the round robin format that League is using for the games. Each team will be playing 3 times thursday and you will accrue points from all 3 games, if you have played a playoff challenge think of it like that, this will be very intresting becuase most if not all sharks will not just be able to just jam their lineups in from optimizers so we need to practice some game theory to give ourselves the advantage on this slate. Assuming that the heavy favorites are going to be priced up we have to decide where to go for value and we obviously want to focus on people who perform well in wins but also those that perform well in losses.


Slate Overview (Players in the best matchups)

PSG (+575) v DWG (-1400) | o/u23.5

  • *uh Unified may do the least bad of all them*

  • Showmaker, Nuguri, BeryL

RGE (+300) v JDG (-475) | o/u 26.5

  • Larssen, Hans Sama, Inspired

  • Loken, LvMao, Kanavi

DWG (-800) v RGE (+450) | o/u 24.5

  • Ghost, Showmaker, Canyon, BeryL

  • Hans Sama, Inspired

JDG (-800) v PSG (+425) | o/u 25.5

  • Yagao, Zoom, LvMao

  • Unified, Tank, River

PSG (+155) v RGE (-200) |o/u 24.5

  • River, Unified

  • Larssen, Finn, Vander

JDG (-140) v DWG (-195) |o/u 28.5

  • Loken, LvMao, Kanavi

  • Showmaker, Nuguri, Canyon

Summary

So going strictly off of odds Vegas believes that the slate will break down like this:

  • PSG (0-3)

  • RGE (1-2)

  • JDG (2-1)

  • DWG (3-0)

One way to try and differentiate youself in any contest is going TOP or Jungle CPT to pair with your stacks expecially in this meta of carry tops/jungles i.g Camielle/Nidalee players can easily match or exceed the MID/ADC's fantasy scores and at a large discount on Draftkings. *Bin Crushed last slate*


DWG and JDG will be the most owned stacks, so how do we decide what to play and who to pair them with? Most peoples initial thought would be DWG because of their utter domience but we need to be concerned with how fast and clean they win the majority of their games, usually this is a good thing but winning too fast is a major problem for DFS. I think that we want to play 4 JDG in more cash builds because of their propensity to fight and make matchups bloody, 4 man RGE stacks would be the ideal GPP play.


Here are some of my favorite targets:

  • Hans Sama - Tough to go with an ADC that will be an underdog in two of their matchups but he performs much better than anyone else on his team in losses and if RGE can manage to sneak a second game it will be because of him and Larssen.

  • Loken - While on average he doesnt perform as well as Yagao in losses he makes up for it in their wins and will have the luck of not having to face Showmaker for one of their 3 games.

  • Larssen - *GPP* While Hans Sama out performs him in losses Larssen on aggregrate performs better in wins and if they can steal a game from JDG you will want both in your lineup.

  • Kanavi - Assuming that JDG goes 2-1 Kanavi is an agrresive jungler and can carry in wins and have the benefit of being somewhat shelted in the JG in a loss, performs well in both Wins & Losses.

Final thoughts, in cash games and smaller field GPPs get creative with a mix of DWG and JDG, for larger field GPPs look to get a mix of JDG and RGE. Also dont rule out the

2-2-2 Player stack this did extreemly well the other day.

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