11/14 NBA DFS Notes and Picks

If you need a list of beat reporters by team:

https://twitter.com/M1tchGud/lists


This is a smaller slate with a lot of condensed ownership, don't go too big on slates like these and consider playing more GPP's instead of cash.


Injury Watch/Effects:

  • Elfrid Payton is out and Mitchell Robinson is questionable tonight for the Nicks, With Elfrid Payton being out expect Frank Nitlikina to continue to start and if Mitchell Robinson misses expect Taj Gibson to start in his place while Julius Randle soaks up some of that usage.

  • Josh Heart, Lonzo Ball are both out and Brandon Ingram, Jahlil Okafor, and Jaxon Hayes are all questionable for tonight With Heart and Ball missing expect the Pelicans to lean on Jrue Holiday and J.J Redick, if Ingram, Okafor, Hayes miss expect Kenrich Williams to get upper 30 minutes, Nicolo Melli and Nickel Alexander-Walker to become intresting GPP plays. Also expect for Derrick Favors to get more usage.

  • Landry Shamet, Patrick Beverly, Kawhi Leonard are all out tonight for the Clippers, The Clippers will likely lean more in Lou Williams who did play 41 minutes last night.....maybe Paul George gets a full allotment of minutes with the clippers being so short handed.

  • Caris Levert is out and Kyrie Irving is questionable tonight, if Kyrie Irving misses Spencer Dinwiddie will become a great value.

  • John Collins, Vince Carter, and Kevin Huerter are all out tonight expect Deandre' Bembry and Cam Reddish to be good sources of value to jam in the super stars.

  • Khris Middleton is out tonight, expect to see Sterling Brown to crack the starting lineup and the Bucks to be even more dependent on Giannis.


Cash Targets:

Cam Reddish, Deandre Bembry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Derrick Favors/ Kenrich Williams (If Brandon Ingram).


My Favorites:

PG:

  • Cam Reddish - along with Bembry, Reddish will be the primary source of value on this slate given no additional injury news. We can expect to see 23-27 minutes and at only $3.3K he should hit value easily.

SG:

  • Spencer Dinwiddie - Price isn't the best but he makes for an amazing Fanduel GPP play with Kyrie Irving questionable and Caris Levet out. If Kyrie Irving misses the amount of minutes and usage that Dinwiddie would get he would crush his price tag.

  • Devin Booker - With one of the highest totals of the slate and the ability to put up 60+ any given night Booker is a decent GPP play and great to run it back with if you decide to play Trae Young who doesn't care too much for playing defense.

SF:

  • Deandre' Bembry - addmorefunds.com a great free tool has him projected at 34 minutes, just like with Reddish Atlanta will have a tight rotation and Bembry should be able to crush value with that allotment of minutes.

  • Kenrich Williams - At only $4.5K on DK and playing in the highest total game of 233.5 Kenrich has a chance to play 40 minutes if Ja, Jaxon, or Ingram miss this game and with that amount of playing time in a game of this total it will be almost impossible to not pay off this cheep price tag.

PF:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo - With no Khris Middleton Giannis' usage goes up to 35%, Chicago allows the most shot attempts around the rim and rebounds to big's in the league....he is in the smash sports of all smash spots but is priced accordingly and there is blow out risk.

  • Kristapis Porzingis - Revenge narrative and the first time playing in MSG since leaving the Knicks, at $6.9K on DK and a poor performance this should lower his ownership and we know he has 50 DK point upside since he did it only 2 games ago against this team.

C:

  • Nikola Jokic - Super cheep will garner a decent amount of ownership but will be overshadowed by Giannis.

  • Derrick Favors - Just like Kenrich, Favors will be in line for even more usage and minutes is any more of the Pelicans players miss. Last game getting 45 DK points in only 29 minutes, if he gets mid 30's he could break the slate.

Value:

Cam Reddish, Deandre Bembry, JayMychal Green, Kenrich Williams, Moe Harkless, Jerome Robinson.


GPP Plays:

Trae Young and bring it back with Devin Booker/Ricky Rubio, Kyrie Irving bring it back with Jamal Murray/ Nikola Jokic, Porzingis against the Knicks, Eric Bledsoe, J.J Redick.


My Cash thoughts pending no injury updates:

*Will post something on twitter later just so much injury news on this slate*

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