11/22 NBA DFS Notes and Picks


If you need a list of beat reporters by team:

https://twitter.com/M1tchGud/lists


Injury Watch/Effects:

  • Draymond Green is out tonight, expect Ky Boman to start in his place and expect Omari Spellman to pick up some extra minutes and usage.

  • Bogdan Bogdanovich and Cory Joseph are questionable tonight and Trevor Ariza is out, if they miss Buddy Hield will have a monster 5.7% usage bump, Richaun Holmes will see a 2.1% usage bump, with the absence of Trevor Ariza expect Nemanja Bjelica to be a great pivot off of Buddy,and finally Yogi Ferrell will be a great value.

  • Kyrie Irving is out tonight, expect Spencer Dinwiddie to still be a usage monster with usage above 30% and for him to be a great value in cash and GPP's.

  • Derrick White is out tonight, Expect Bryn Forbes and Jakob Poeltl to see increased usage.

  • Derick Jones Jr. and Justice Winslow are out tonight, expect Duncan Robinson to continue to start and Jimmy Butler (revenge narrative tonight), Kendrick Nunn, and Tyler Herro to see increase minutes and usage.

  • Tony Snell is out tonight, expect Langston Galloway to be a key source of value tonight.

  • Chandler Hutchison is questionable, if out expect Shaq Harrison to see more minutes.

  • Daniel House Jr. is doubtful tonight, expect P.J Tucker to get more usage and minutes.

Cash Targets:

Spencer Dinwiddie, Andre Drummond, Alec Burks, Al Horford, Yogi Ferrell (If Cojo misses), P.J Tucker, Omari Spellman, Langston Galloway.


My Favorites:

PG:

  • Luka Doncic - Really shouldn't have to write anything at all but he crushed the slate last time out and posted a tipple double in 26 minutes. could be blowout risk here but I have learned my lesson and will still roster him with that risk knowing he can get 50+ in 1 half.

  • Devonte Graham - in a game with a 235 total the Hornets will lean on Graham and Rozier to keep them in it, and at Rozier's price he will have to hit 38 points to hit 6x which he has only done once in the last 10 games so I will take a shot at Graham for just a little more. (Credit Noto for that stat)

SG:

  • Spencer Dinwiddie - Still confused as to why Draftkings is so reluctant to price a player who has a 30+% usage rate and logs more than 30 minutes above $8K. Regardless, Dinwiddie is a cash game lock for me and solid GPP play as well.

  • Donovan Mitchell - Blow out risk here so a GPP only play for me, but if Golden State manages to keep it close expect Mitchell to pay off big time. Consider playing Alec Burks or Omari Spellman if you decide to play the Spida in tournaments.

SF:

  • Paul George - Just too cheep even with Kawhi on the court he has 50 point upside and can hit that easily with no more minutes restriction.

  • Taurean Prince - with Kyrie Irving missing Dinwiddie and Prince have been who the Nets have leaned on, and at $6K on DK with no obvious punt plays Prince makes for good mid range value.

PF:

  • Moritz Wagner - Wagner has been eating into Thomas Bryant's minutes and with good reason, just 3 games ago we saw him go nuclear in an up paced game and now we get him for just $4.7K against the Hornets.

  • Nemanja Bjelica - More of a GPP play for me but with Ariza missing tonight he should be locked into more minutes and will be a great pivot (ownership-wise) off of Buddy Hield if Bogdan Bogdanovich misses tonight.

C:

  • Andre Drummond - Too cheep, even with Blake Griffin back Drummond had 50 point upside especially against a porous Hawk's team with no big men to even remotely challenge him.

  • Joel Embiid - Will get him at lower ownership than usual and San Antonio has been absolutely horrendous on defense this year. Only thing that scares me is that they are on the front end of a back to back and he is expected to play tomorrow so he might see reduced minutes tonight.

Value:

Langston Galloway, P.J Tucker, Malik Monk,Shaq Harrison (if Chandler Hutchison is out),


GPP Plays:

Nemanja Bjelica,Bradley Beal, Joe Ingles, Jimmy Butler (revenge narrative)


My Cash thoughts pending no injury updates:

*Will update with line after injury news*

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