12/4/19 NBA DFS Notes and Plays


If you need a list of beat reporters by team:

https://twitter.com/M1tchGud/lists


Injury Watch/Effects:

  • Mike Conley is out tonight, expect Donovan Mitchell to mega chalk at a super low price tag, Conley missing also makes Joe Ingles and Emmanuel Mudiay good values tonight.

  • Aron Baynes is out tonight, expect Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky to continue to see more usage and minutes but expect Cheick Diallo to eat into Frank's minutes.

  • Al-Farouq Aminu and Nikola Vucevic are out tonight, same situation as last night and Aaron Gordon might play less minutes being a B2B and fresh off of an injury, Khem Birch will be a viable option.

  • Jake Layman and Sterling brown are out tonight, Expect Khris Middleton and Keita Bates-Diop to be good values tonight.

  • Goran Dragic is out tonight, Justice Winslow will draw the start tonight and makes a good GPP play, and Kendrick Nunn will continue to see increased usage.

  • Brandon Clarke and JA Morant are out tonight, Kyle Anderson and Jonas Valanciunas are questionable, if both JVal and Anderson miss this puts JJJ in a great spot but he gets in foul trouble so often that I will look to Bruno Coboclo to gain leverage on everyone playing him. Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks are good values. If only Anderson is out Solomon Hill and DeAnthony Melton are viable options.

  • Marcus Smart is out tonight, minutes boost to Brand Wanamaker gets a boost I minutes but i will look to Jaylen Brown for GPP's.

  • D'angelo Russell is probable tonight, can go off any night but purely a GPP punt though because of a murky minutes projection and seen in a thumb brace just last Sunday.

  • Kevin Huerter is playing on a minutes restriction and De'Andre Hunter is out, Cam Reddish and DeAndre Bembry become elite values.


Cash Targets:

Donovan Mitchell, Cam Reddish, Kris Dunn (if starting), Taurean Prince.

My Favorites:

PG:

  • Damien Lillard - At only 8.1K on DK I am automatically intrigued by anyone with 60 point upside at that price tag, and after getting blown out last night Lillard only played 30 min when he averages 35-37 so the B2B doesn't worry me.

  • LeBron James - On the second game of a B2B I can easily imagine the "AD to the locker room" Fantasy Labs tweet. Even if not AD will have his hands full with Rudy Gobert and I expect LBJ to have lower ownership because of the lower total on this game.

SG:

  • Donovan Mitchell - Mega chalk and rightfully so, at his cheapest price of the year on DK its almost impossible to imagine any scenario where Mitchell doesn't crush that price tag with no Mike Conley in this game. Love pairing Spida and LBJ in GPP's.

  • Cam Reddish - For a 10 game slate we don't have too many viable punt plays, and with Kevin Huerter only slotted to play 15 min on a limit tonight and Deandre Hunter out Reddish should be in line to see 30 min at near min price.

SF:

  • Khris Middleton - Put up 32 DK points in 18 min because the Knicks team they ran out there 2 days ago should be in the G-League. If Middleton can get mid 20 min he should crush this price tag.

  • Kris Dunn - If he starts again Dunn is just too cheep for how many minutes he is getting at 4.5K on DK and a soft match up against the Hornets Dunn is one of the value pieces that make tonight's puzzle work.

PF:

  • Taurean Prince - With Kyrie still sidelined Prince has been crushing it and now gets a match up against the Hawks who play very little defense an are one of the most turnover prone teams in the league, prince has excelled at steals this year which makes him an even better FanDuel play tonight.

  • Kristaps Porzingis - He burned a lot of people last night because of foul trouble but was on pace to crush if not for the foul trouble and the blow out. I am worried that he hasn't played any back to backs since his injury but that makes him an even better GPP play hopefully suppressing ownership.

C:

  • Andre Drummond - The best play at a very bad center position tonight, squared up against Brook Lopez who doesn't even like playing in the paint Drummond should absolutely eat tonight.

  • Karl Anthony-Towns - Purely a GPP play for me but in lineups that I have Luka I am going to run it back with KAT in hopes that these two superstars duel it out and both put 70+ up.

Value:

Cam Reddish, Emmanuel Mudiay, Kris Dunn, Deandre Bembry


GPP Plays:

Bruno Coboclo, Kris Dunn, Joe Ingles, Deandre Bembry, Spender Dinwiddie, Christian Wood if (Blake Griffin is out and Morris is out)


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