AT&T Byron Nelson @ TPC Craig Ranch:
Topics for today heading into tomorrow’s Event:
Revisiting player opinions
With all sports, you typically want to follow the flow. If the Dallas Cowboys open at -3 and the line closes at -6.5, they were a good bet at -3, regardless of the outcome. Fortunately for the purpose of DFS, the ownership projections increasing and decreasing as the Vegas odds increase and decrease serve as useful information. For example: Fitzpatrick was coming in at low ownership to start but his numbers have moved up which tells me he is potentially a good play. Follow the flow, both ways.
Everybody knows somebody and if you dig deep enough, sometimes you can uncover a valuable tip or two. I reached out to a couple amateur/pro golfers that have played on TPC Craig Ranch recently and inquired about the course, among various other things. Since brevity is appreciated, I will simply touch on a few things I took away from the conversations. “Long Irons” will serve valuable this weekend in Texas. It is worth noting that Bryson and the other heavy hitters off the tee will not have as many long iron situations as the average golfer. When I asked about the Bentgrass greens versus the last couple weeks of Bermuda greens, the consensus was interesting to me since I am admittedly not a golfer myself. Quality Bermuda greens putters can putt on other greens, but quality Bentgrass greens putters may have trouble with Bermuda greens. I am sure there are many out there that would disagree with this notion, but the same guy that told me Gary Woodland last week told me this pearl of wisdom, so there is that. Lastly, both guys I spoke to said to go with the long drivers and not to be shy with the
European players. More was discussed, but since this is not a podcast or a video, I am trying to keep it somewhat reasonable in length.
In order not to spread yourself too thin, in the “my data” tab of advanced options, you can create a minimum number of points required for a lineup to be generated. This will help weed out potentially the worst lineups that if you sifted through them all after generation, you probably would not want to be using. Randomness is key to landing on unique lineups, as is leaving salary on the table. I personally will not be leaving more than $100 on the table this week, but $200-$300 is not the craziest thing, especially
for this week. As for the randomness, I am going with 12% this week because of a slightly tighter pool than normal, but 15-20% is advised.
Revisiting Player Opinions:
This is a kind way of me saying I made a couple mistakes in Monday’s column and wanted to correct myself as well as share my change in opinions on some golfers as well as additions on my radar.
Spieth shared that he had COVID recently and has been quarantining. I was already shying away from Jordan this week, so this news puts the nail in the coffin. He is paired with two popular picks of mine this week and is a Texas guy, but I do not want a guy at such an expensive salary who is likely not 100%. As mentioned earlier, follow the flow. Spieth’s stock is falling.
Zalatoris also played there when he was younger, just like Scheffler. I already liked Willy Z, now I love him this week.
Sergio has been reluctantly added to my player pool. I typically hate rostering him but the simple fact that he has seen this golf course before when most of these guys have not is appealing. I do not like the tune up narrative, but I am willing to ignore it this week for Garcia. He is long off the tee so if the putts fall for him this weekend, he could find himself in the top 10.
Sung Kang and Aaron Wise have NOT played here in professional play before. I was mistaken with regards to the courses when I wrote that on Monday. With that said, I still like both. Kang is still from Texas and Wise is still a long driver that has played well recently. Potter Jr. was another mistake I made in Monday’s piece – he has not played on this course to my knowledge and is off my radar at this time despite his recent quality play.
Clark, Lashley, Gordon, Villegas, Lahiri are all on my radar. Villegas and Lashley are not as long off the tee as Clark, Gordon, or Lahiri, but I like all five of these guys and they are in my player pool this week.
Palmer and Howell have also both been added to my player pool. Howell is reliable and has quality long irons. Palmer hits too far off the tee to be left off the list this week.
Bryson, Bryson, Bryson… I cannot fade all the top dawgs this week so he will be my horse. I personally do not feel it is prudent to play both Bryson and Rahm this week given the salary constraints. Bryson + Berger would be the most expensive combination I am personally willing to go. If you decide to go with Rahm instead of Bryson, that is a legitimate option. I am no longer underweight on Bryson, I am surely overweight now.
Luke List, Thomas Pieters, Keith Mitchell, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Patton Kizzire – in no particular order, guys that I definitely like this week.
Good luck to everybody competing this week in the PGA tournaments!