Daily Article 08/19

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08/19

Bets

Rangers F5 +0.5 (-135) L

- Personal (bias) play. I like Allard's stuff and think there is value here because the public is overvaluing Dillon Peters. I think this is the game the wheels fall off for Peters....Rangers TTo6 looks interesting considering LAA's decimated bullpen.

- LAA has been struggling with hitting LHP's the last month with a team OBS of .193

Twins -1.5 (-125) L

- The White Sox are a joke at this point in the season, with a Vegas IRT (Implied Run Total) of 3.8 and Twins with an IRT of 5.7 this should be all that needs to be said.

- Nova (2 ER combined in his last 5 starts) has been pitching well above his means and is due for some regression.

- Keep an eye on Max Kepler's DTD tag.

Nationals F5 -0.5 (+105) W

- Joe Ross has given up 1 ER in the month of august (3 Starts)

- With a SIERA approaching 6 Trevor Williams has had a rough go about it since the All- Star break, and it looks like it wont get any easier facing the Nationals who have won 5 of their last 6 games while putting up 59 runs!

Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (-140) L

- Zac Gallen's 10.17 K/9 coupled with the Rockies striking out 10.29 times per game while on the road makes for some interesting S/O props if your book has them.

- Gallen has also done great with run prevention earning himself a 4.03 SIERA.

DFS

Home Run Call(s):

Aristides Aquino (duh)

Hunter Dozier

- Has a .308 ISO v LHP & .631 xSLG v LHP in 91 Plate appearances this season.

- He matches up well with John Means giving up the second highest xHR/9 on the slate paired 48.6% Fly Ball rate this season. (for more on the xHR/9 stat look at some of @PAYDIRT_DFS work)

- Projected to be 95°C at first pitch with 50% humidity and winds of 5 MPH blowing out.

- All of this and Jorge Soler will probably dong instead.

Stacks:

The Chalk:

Houston

LAA

ARI

Tex

(Blue indicates favorite)

Contrarian Corner:

Game stack Bal/KCR

Nationals

Twins

Pitching(DK):

The Chalk:

Wade Miley (Fade)

Brendan McKay (-3.10)

Zac Gallen (20.90)

Kyle Gibson (8.80)

Contrarian Corner:

Marco Gonzales (Sub 10%)

Kolby Allard

Trevor Bauer (30.15)

Positional Breakdown:

C:

Mitch Garver

Yasmani Grandal

Pedro Severino

Carson Kelly

1B:

Danny Santana

Trey Mancini

Renato Nunez

Paul Goldschmidt

2B:

Jose Altuve

Jonathan Villar

Eduardo Escobar

Rougned Odor

Whit Merrifield

SS:

Elvis Andrus

Carlos Correa (Hurt)

Trea Turner

Jorge Polanco

3B:

Alex Bregman

Hunter Dozier

Eugenio Suarez

Miguel Sano

Anthony Rendon

OF:

Mike Trout (Even though I like Allard he will give up a bomb

George Springer

Jorge Soler

Aristides Aquino

Max Kepler (DTD)

Sin-Soo Choo

Juan Soto

Anthony Santander

Marcell Ozuna

David Peralta

Value:

Yan Gomes,Yadier Molina,Jake Lamb,Albert Pujols,C.J Cron,Jose Peraza, Brian Dozier, Hansler Alberto,David Fletcher,Jace Peterson,Dexter Fowler, Alex Gordon,Josh Reddick,Cheslor Cuthbert, Rio Ruiz, DJ Stewart