Daily Article 08/21

Updated: Aug 22, 2019



08/21

Bets

White Sox ML (+150) W

- In the lat 2 years Lucas Giolito is 17-8 as a dog on the road, at +150 that is some great value that i'm willing to take a stab at.

- Giolito sports a 3.75 SIERA which points to some great run prevention, my only worry is if the CWS hitters can get to Odorizzi or not.


Mets F5 -0.5 (-115) W

- Adam Plutko has some of the worst numbers on the slate with a 5.44 SIERA,6.09 FIP.

- While several Indians have a high xSLG against Stroman historically they have abysmal ISO numbers against him...this means that a lot of the expected slugging (Extra Base Hits) doesn't work out, naturally so since Marcus Stroman is a groundballer.

- Making this F5 because I don't trust the Mets awful bullpen.


Yankees TT o4.5 (-120) L

- Mike Fiers has some bad underlying numbers that suggest that he has been getting a bit lucky, only thing that worries me is them playing at Oakland which is a park that limits the long ball which the Yankees are so reliant on.


Cubs F5 -0.5 (-165) W

- Usually don't like to take odds this bad so feel free to avoid if you don't see any value but Yu Darvish has really come in to full from as of late, Allowing only 1 run in the last 3 home games (17 Innings).

- The Cubs batters should get to Derrick Rodriguez who has a SIERA of 5.41 and K rate of 14.6% (Bottom 6% in the league!!).

- My only worry are his splits vs lefties (SF can trot out 6 of them). Splits below.





Parlay

CWS +1.5,NYY +1.5,HOU-1.5 (+314)


DFS

Home Run Call(s):

Pete Alonso

- With a .313 ISO and .515 xSLG against RHP Alonso matches up well against Plutko who gives up a .555 SLG percentage on the road.

- Plutko also sports 47.5% Fly Ball and 34.3% Hard Contact rates .


Stacks:

Blue Indicates my favorite

The Chalk:

Red Sox

Dodgers

Astros (Mega Chalk)

Royals


Contrarian Corner:

Mets

Phillies

Nationals


Pitching(DK):

The Chalk:

Justin Verlander

Walker Buehler

Yu Darvish


Contrarian Corner:

Marcus Stroman

Adrian Houser

Mike Minor

- Could be recency bias but a AAA pitcher just mowed down the Halos lineup last night, with the exception of 2 nights ago the Angles have the worst wOBA against lefties in the league the past month, and you're gonna get him at sub 10% ownership great tournament pivot

Julio Teheran


Positional Breakdown:

C:

Wilson Ramos

J.T Realmuto

Gary Sanchez

Robinson Chirinos


1B:

Pete Alonso

Joc Pederson

Rhys Hoskins

Trey Mancini


2B:

Jose Altuve

Max Muncy

Isan Diaz

Ian Happ


SS:

Corey Seager

Xander Bogaerts

Carlos Correa

Amed Rosario

Jean Segura


3B:

Alex Bregman

Justin Turner

J.D Davis

Rafael Devers


OF:

Cody Bellinger

Mookie Betts

Michael Conforto

Nicholas Castellanos

Bryce Harper

A.J Pollock

Juan Soto

George Springer

Ronald Acuna


Value:

Isan Diaz,Scooter Gennett,Logan Morrison, Yan Gomes,Nicky Lopez, Aaron Judge,Adam Duval, Trent Grisham, Victor Robles, Chad Pinder.


Weather:

- Winds blowing out 10-15 MPH for NYM/CLE, Watch for storm possibility of PPD

- Winds blowing out 8-10 MPH PHI/BOS

- Winds blowing out 8-10 MPH KCR/BAL

- Winds blowing out 6-8 MPH CWS/MIN

- Wind blowing out 7-9 MPH OAK/NYY


General Notes

- The Pirates bullpen has been worked over time the last two outings, Trevor Williams only lasted 2 innings and Chris Archer got hurt after one. If the Nationals can get to Joe Musgrove early they have a chance to blow the game wide open against a depleted bullpen. Ownership should be very low with everyone recency bias after they put up one run in a prime spot last night.

- 2 of the last 3 times that Verlander has been a -400 or more favorite his team has lost.

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