Daily Article 08/22

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08/22

Bets

Rockies F5 +0.5 (-130) W

- German Marquez has had the unfortunate luck of being a pitcher for the Rockies and having to pitch half of his starts at Coors Field and as a result you can see his massive splits below.

- With going from the #1 worst park for a pitcher to pitch in to the #5 best I believe that Marquez should be able to flash his dominance against the the pitiful Cardinals who have ranked in the bottom 5 for runs scored in the first 5 innings.

- Marquez splits also favor him in this match up, being much better against righties and the Cardinals only being able to trot out 3 players (Fowler,Wong, and Edman) not known for their power power confirms my interest in this spot.

Rangers/ White Sox o10.5 (-125) L

- The combination of Ariel Jurado's 5.04 SIERA and Ross Detwiler's 4.88 SIERA & 7.33 FIP these are two of the worst pitchers on the slate in the same match up.

- The are two things I would keep an eye on though. Currently winds are blowing left to right at 13-15 MPH!! keep an eye on this if they shift to blowing out mash the over and if they blow in I would be off the play. Secondly, Detwiler sports a 56.3% Ground Ball Rate(Highest on the slate) which is very concerning if the winds start to blow in, but he does own a 14.6 K% which is one of the worst in the league.

Rays F5 -0.5 (-145) L

- Ryan Yarbrough has been absolutely dominant on the road this year (see below) and he gets to face the the lackluster Orioles.

- Not only do the Rays have the advantage at facing one of the worst offenses in baseball they also get to match up against journeyman Asher Wojciechowski who has a SIERA of 5.66 and 2.20 HR/9.

Parlay: Rays ML,Dodgers F5 -0.5,Rockies F5 +0.5 (+302)

DFS

Home Run Call(s):

Austin Meadows

- Owns a .532 xSLG against RHP as well as .250 ISO this matches up well with Asher Wojciechowski's 2.20 HR/9.

- 8-10 MPH wind is blowing out at Camden Yards .

Stacks:

The Chalk:

Astros

Rays (Mega chalk)

Rangers

Less Owned:

Braves

Dodgers

Nationals

Athletics (Tanaka gets lit up on the road: Semien,Olson,Profar as a low own mini stack)

Pitching(DK):

The Chalk:

Gerrit Cole

Mike Soroka (Going to be mega chalk like him but has some bad home/away splits)

Max Scherzer

Contrarian Corner:

German Marquez

Kenta Maeda

Positional Breakdown:

C:

Travis D'Arnaud

James McCann

Gary Sanchez

Will Smith

Kurt Suzuki

1B:

Max Muncy

Freddie Freeman

Ji-Man Choi

Jose Abreau

Matt Olson

2B:

Eric Sogard

Nick Solak

Jose Altuve

Brian Dozier

SS:

Corey Seager

Alex Bregman

Marcus Semien

Trea Turner

3B:

Justin Turner

Anthony Rendon

Matt Chapman

Yoan Moncada

OF:

Austin Meadows

Cody Bellinger

Hunter Pence

Tommy Pham

Yordan Alavrez

Ronald Acuna Jr.

Willie Calhoun

Juan Soto

Leury Garcia

Value:

Nick Solak,Tyler Flowers,Brian Dozier, Jesus Aguilar,Logan Forsythe, Matt Duffy

Weather:

- Winds of 13-15 MPH blowing left to right for CWS/TEX.

- Winds blowing out 8-10 MPH for BAL/TB as well as storms.

- Scatted storms around PIT/WAS game chance at a delay.

General Notes:

- Tanaka's ERA almost doubles on the road but is also 16-6 in F5 betting