Daily Article 08/26



08/26

Bets

Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (+125)

  1. With the exception of Mike Yastrzmski and Austin Slater the rest of SF looks to be absolutely lost against LHP ( See below)

  2. This in combination with Tyler Beede's recent performance (4.82 xFIP, 4.71 SIERA, and 8.72 ERA L30 ) makes me like this spot.


Brewers F5 -0.5 (+105)

  1. Gio Gonzales has only allowed 1 run in 3 of his last 4 starts

  2. Brewers have been dominating RHP this season (Yelich .393 ISO,Huria .315,Moustakas .275)

  3. Adam Wainwright has some awful home and away splits (See Below)




Parlay: CIN ML, LAD ML,SF/AZ o9 (+419)


DFS

Home Run Call(S):

Bryce Harper

  1. Just getting back from paternity leave (love that narrative), Harper is has a 44.1% Hard Contact Rate, .225 ISO, and .355 wOBA against righties.

  2. Joe Musgrove is sporting a 1.67 HR/9 this year and 16.7% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days.

  3. PNC park is one of the top 5 wort parks for pitchers.

Eduardo Escobar

  1. Tyler Beede over the last 30 days is giving up a 52% Hard Contact Rate and a 33.3% HR/FB rate!!!

  2. While playing at oracle park might be great news fore a pitcher, I believe that Beede's recent performance and winds blowing out up to 10 MPH are a recipe for disaster.

  3. Escobar has a .239 ISO and 45.6 FB rate against RHP.

  4. Alex Avila or Carson Kelly could be substitute in here.


Stacks:

The Chalk:

Brewers

Yankees

Cardinals


Contrarian Corner:

Diamondbacks

Phillies

Athletics


Pitching(DK):

The Chalk:

Sonny Gray

Dustin May

Pablo Lopez


Contrarian Corner:

J.A Happ

Alex Young

Gio Gonzalez


Positional Breakdown:

C:

Tom Murphy

Alex Avila

Yasmani Grandal

Gary Sanchez

J.T Relamuto


1B:

Rhys Hoskins

Christian Walker

Paul Goldschmidt

Matt Olson


2B:

Keston Hiura

Gleyber Torres

Ketel Marte

Tommy Edman


SS:

Marcus Semien

Jean Segura

Paul DeJong

Corey Seager


3B:

Eduardo Escobar

Mike Moustakas

Justin Turner

Matt Chapman


OF:

Christian Yealich

Bryce Harper

Cody Bellinger

A.J Pollock

Dexter Fowler

Corey Dickerson

Jarrod Dyson



Value: Buster Posey,Christian Walker,Brad Miller,Matt Carpenter,Orlando Arcia,Dustin Solano,Trent Grisham, Khris Davis, Jorge Soler, Jake Lamb


Weather:

Winds blowing out 7-10 MPH ARI@SF

Winds blowing in and to the right 8-10 MPH OAK@KC (Storming watch for PPD)


Sources:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com


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