Mitch KjeldgaardDaily Article 08/29
08/29
Bets
Mets F5 -0.5 (-130)
The Mets bats match up well against Lester as you can see below
John Lester has a 5.09 SIERA over the last 30 days.
Degrom has a 3.02 SIERA and 2.84 xFIP over the last 30 days
Rangers F5 -0.5 (-130)
The Mariners have 6 hitters with a sub .150 ISO against RHP (Smith,Moore,Broxton,Nola,Lopes,Gordon)
Felix Hernandez has a 6.44 SIERA over the last 30 days
Hernandez is surrendering a .362 wOBA, 5.49 xFIP to RHH (The Rangers can roll out 7 RHH tonight)
Reds/Marlins o8.5 (-110)
Alex Wood is giving up a 28% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days and has earned himself a 6.48 ERA.
Woods has crazy splits and allows a .266 ISO to RHH as compared to a .32 ISO to LHH (The Marlins will mostly have 8 RHH in tonight's lineup)
Robert Dugger had a 7.59 ERA in AAA...i think that enough said bout him
Could also go with Marlins TT o3.5 (+105)
Parlay: Mets ML, Reds/Marlins o8.5, Dodgers F5 -0.5 (+360)
DFS
Home Run Call(S):
Danny Santana
Felix Hernandez is giving up a 66.7% FB rate in addition to a 20% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days
Santana has a .267 ISO again RHP this season with a 43.9 Hard Contact Rate
Pete Alonso/ Jon Berti
Pete is crushing lefties with a .385 ISO
Berti also has a .385 ISO against lefties
More of gut feeling calls
Stacks:
The Chalk:
Rockies
Pirates
Dodgers
Contrarian Corner:
Rangers
Mets
Pitching(DK):
The Chalk:
Jacob Degrom
Chris Paddack
Alex Wood
Contrarian Corner:
Lance Lynn
Dereck Rodriguez
Positional Breakdown:
C:
Wilson Ramos
Will Smith
Buster Posey
Tucker Barnhart
1B:
Peter Alonso
Josh Bell
Cody Bellinger
Joey Votto
2B:
Nick Solak
Rougned Odor
Max Muncy
Kevin Newman
SS:
Amed Rosario
Elvis Andrus
Corey Seager
Trevor Story
3B:
Todd Frazier
Jon Berti
Nolan Arenado
Justin Turner
OF:
Danny Santana
Charlie Balckmon
Aristides Aquino
Sin-Choo Soo
J.D Davis
Starling Marte
Willie Calhoun
Josh VanMeter
Value:
Rougned Odor,Nick Solak,Elias Diaz,Dom Nunez,Manuel Margot
Weather:
Sources: