Daily Article 09/03



09/03

Bets

Pirates F5 -0.5 (-125).

  1. Mitch Keller over the last 30 days has a 7.45 ERA but a 3.77 SIERA and 3.68 xFIP, this indicates that Keller has gotten EXTREMELY unlucky.

  2. Before his ugly start against Philly Keller looked absolutely dominate against a Reds team that is pretty similar to the Marlins.

  3. Miami has been abysmal against RHP this year (See Below).


Indians TT o5.5 (-125)

  1. The Indians have 5 players with over a .200 ISO (Puig,Santana,Lindor,Reyes,Kipnis) against RHP.

  2. Dylan Cease has a 28.6% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days.

  3. Cease is allowing a .432 wOBA and .308 ISO against lefties this year, Indians are rolling out 6 lefties tonight (Santana, Bauers,Freeman,Flaherty,Lindor,Allen).


Parlay: KCR ML,CLE ML,OAK ML (+235)


DFS

Home Run Call(S):

Tom Murphy

  1. Murphy has a .415 ISO and 59.7% FB rate against LHP this season.

  2. Wind is blowing out 10-12 MPH in Wrigley!

  3. Lester over the last 30 days has a 5.71 SIERA and 5.46 xFIP.

  4. Lester is giving up a 16% HR/FB rate and close to 40% hard contact rate this year.

  5. Kyle Seager also really good chance to hit a homerun as well.


Stacks:

The Chalk:

Indians

Cubs

Red Sox


Contrarian Corner:

Mariners

Athletics

Twins


Pitching(DK):

The Chalk:

Mitch Keller

Max Scherzer

Mike Clevinger

Mike Foltynewicz (Fade)


Contrarian Corner:

Ronald Bolanos

Merrill Kelly


Positional Breakdown:

C:

Tom Murphy

Christian Vasquez

Jason Castro

Will Smith


1B:

Carlos Santana

Anthony Rizzo

Freddy Freeman

Matt Oleson


2B:

Ozzie Ablies

Cavan Biggio

Luis Arrez

Whit Merrifield

Jason Kipnis


SS:

Francisco Lindor

Xander Bogaerts

Marcus Semien

Javier Baez


3B:

Rafael Devers

Kyle Seager

Miguel Sano

Khris Bryant


OF:

Mookie Betts

Max Kepler

Ronald Acuna

Nicholas Castellanos

Nelson Cruz

Cody Bellinger

Mark Canha


Value:

Gavin Lux,Josh Rojas,Jason Heyward,Jake Bauers,Greg Allen,Dexter Fowler,Seth Brown,Nick Dini,Ian Happ,Jake Lamb


Weather:

Winds blowing out to right 10-12 MPH SEA@CHC

Winds blowing out to center 14-16 MPH CHW@CLE


Sources:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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