Daily Article 09/10



09/10

Bets

Ryan Yarbrough o4.5 SO (-125)

  • See breakdown below

Braves F5 - 0.5 (-130)

  • The braves have 5 hitters starting tonight with over a .200 ISO against LHP this year.

  • Jason Vargas has a 5.94 xFIP and 5.76 SIERA over the last 30 days.

  • Max Fried has amazing numbers over the last 30 days (See Below)




Parlay: STL ML,TBR ML,LAD ML (+255)


DFS

Home Run Call(S):

Cody Bellinger

  • Boring picking someone that has hit so many, but Bellinger has a .333 ISO,42.8% Fly Ball Rate, 50.7 Hard Contact rate against LHP this season.

  • over the course of the season Ty Blach is giving up a 16.7% HR/FB rate, 48% FB rate, and 50.6% Hard Contact rate to LHH.


Stacks:

The Chalk:

Cardinals

Rockies

Dodgers


Contrarian Corner:

Braves

Indians

Red Sox

Mariners (Bauer has a 14.5 Road ERA since starting with the reds)


Pitching(DK):

The Chalk:

Jose Quinta

Trevor Bauer

Walker Buehler


Contrarian Corner:

Zack Wheeler

Chase Anderson

Ryan Yarbrough

Mitch Keller


My Favorites

Ryan Yarbrough

  • As you can see below the rangers have 3 players with Good ISO's against LHP this season but i'm willing to gamble and take a shot at that strike out upside that you can see.

  • The wind is blowing in 13-15 MPH in Glob life park which will limit power which the Rangers are so reliant on. the 3-4-5 of their lineup worries me but the rest is smooth sailing IMO.

  • Will be 1-3% owned, don't play him in cash just a great Tournament pivot.

  • Rangers over the last 20 days are dead last against LHP.


Mitch Keller

  • Has a 3.35 xFIP and SIERA over the last 30 days (compared to his 6.86 ERA which means he has gotten extremely unlucky as of late). Keller also has almost a 30% K rate and only problem has been HR's (Which Oracle park helps limit).

  • I recommended him his last start and he had 3 SO in 1.1 Innings and took a 100 MPH linedrive off his arm, this is my only concern to see how his arm feels. Don't know if he will be on a pitch count or not.

  • Keller will face a Johnny Queto,Mauricio Dubon, and Jaylin Davis (Queto being a pitcher and the other 2 being called up recently with only 22 combine AB's in the majors.

  • The Giants are missing Alex Dickerson & Pablo Sandoval two of their best power hitters.


Positional Breakdown:

C:

Will Smith

Yadier Molina

Christian Vazquez

Roberto Perez


1B:

Paul Goldschmidt (Cash)

Freddie Freeman

Carlos Santana

Jose Abreau


2B:

Ozzie Albies

Kolten Wong

Tommy Edman

Jose Altuve


SS:

Paul DeJong

Francisco Lindor

Xander Bogaerts

Adalberto Mondesi


3B:

Josh Donaldson

Justin Turner

Yoan Moncada

Rafael Devers


OF:

Cody Bellinger

Ronald Acuna Jr.

Marcell Ozuna

A.J Pollock

Max Kepler

Mookie Betts

Andrew Benintendi

Franmil Reyes

Dexter Fowler


Value:

Trent Grisham,Joey Wendle,Harrison Bader,Garrett Hampson,Ji-Man Choi,Chad Pinder,David Fletcher,JP Crawford


Weather:

Possible delay STL@COL

Wind blowing in 13-15 MPH TB@TEX

Wind blowing out 10-12 MPH ARI@NYM

Wind blowing out 8-10 MPH PIT@SF


Sources:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

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