Draftkings PGA - AT&T Byron Nelson Top Plays and Strategy
Updated: May 10, 2021
Welcome! I hope everybody enjoys this first ever PGA DFS writeup heading into AT&T Byron Nelson this Thursday. This is a strategic advice column and for that reason I will not waste time going over general course details –here is a link if you are interested in that information. This is primarily GPP advice, specifically with regards to DK pricing. With that said, a lot of what you will read below is applicable to strategy on both DK and FD.
General approach:
I am a firm believer in making some stands every week. Eating all the chalk is not advised, nor is fading all of it.
Prices are important, but not as important as ownership. Being unique is more important than being correct.
There are many ways to get the job done, player pool size is a matter of preference. Mine varies week to week.
Player groupings/restrictions are essential within my strategic approach to PGA DFS, not just for NBA, NHL, NFL, LoL, and other DFS competitions.
Groupings:
I am guessing this is a regularly ignored tool for people that participate in PGA DFS. This may sound a bit oxymoronic as my personal views on this week are a bit different from my standard approach, but I will still pose the following hypothetical question: What are the chances that one of the most expensive players will be REQUIRED on the winning lineup? We could dive into the Vegas math, but let us save some time and trust that as expected, the answer is extremely likely. If any of those guys finish in the top three, or even top five, their probability of being required on the winning lineup is tremendous.
I recommend using either one or two groupings for the most expensive players, depending on how many bargain bin plays you are rolling the dice with on any given week.
The first grouping – and sometimes the only expensive player grouping I use – would take the top 4-8 players, depending on salary, and create a grouping requirement that AT LEAST ONE of them is on every single lineup.
The second grouping – which I have been tinkering with more and more lately with varying success – would take the top 8-14 guys (including the players from the first group) and create a grouping requirement that AT LEAST TWO of them is on every single lineup.
I do NOT create groupings for the mid-range salary players. I want my lineups to be able to fall on different combinations of them since they are all quality players with similar upside and risk (and of course, salaries).
The third and final grouping – which is equally as important as the first grouping – would take the bottom 6-12 players and create a grouping requirement that AT MOST ONE of them is on every single lineup.
This is what has worked for me and with those I have already shared it with, I know it has worked for them as well. I hope it works for all of you if you do incorporate my suggested strategic approach within the fantasy cruncher re player salaries and groupings.
Moving along to the juicy stuff, let us review our player options this week at each salary point.
$10,000+:
Dustin Johnson $11,400:
My take on all the super expensive guys is going to be somewhat contrarian this week, and it starts right at the top with DJ. Given the magnitude of next week’s tournament in Hawaii, I do not feel comfortable investing so much salary into a guy that is likely viewing this week as a tune up. Is he the best golfer in the world? Yes, probably – but I promise he cares more about next week than this week. It would not surprise me if he shot +5 on one of the first two days and -5 on the other, only to not make the cut and fly to Hawaii a few days early. There is of course the chance I am completely incorrect and DJ comes out firing because, well, he’s more than capable and if he’s actually motivated to win instead of just refine his game heading into the PGA Championship next week, he surely can win. I will be under the field this week on DJ.