NFL Rundown Week 1


09/08

BETS

GB/CHI o46 (-115)

Bills +3 (-125)

Panthers +3 (-110)


DFS

QB:

Patrick Mahomes

  • With the highest game total on the slate at 52 points and Mahomes being the shot collar in the highest scoring offense in the league makes him an every week play.

  • With the Jag's hiring of John DeFilippo (formerly of the Vikings) they will move away from a stale offense and try to show off their shiny new toy in Nick Foles. If the 2018 Vikings a signal of things to come expect a much faster offense and either more points or more 3 and outs....both of which equate to more possessions for Mahomes to rack up the points.

Jameis Winston

  • With the third highest game total of 50 points Winston will have to sling the ball to keep the Buccaneers in the game.

  • In 2018 Fitzpatrick and Winston combined to be the QB2 in all of fantasy.

  • Winston will now have Bruce Arians at the helm, Arians is known to be one of the most fantasy friendly coaches.

  • The 49ers were 29th in DvP vs QB's last year.

Russell Willson

  • What I thought as a sneaky stack in Willson/Lockett/Carson seems to be becoming more and more popular.

  • Russell had the fewest passing attempts of his career by a large margin, with a new OC hopefully the Seahawks can get one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL back on track to fantasy stardom, and going up against the Bengals (who allowed the most fantasy points to QBs in 2018) seems like a good place to start.

  • Call me crazy but the Bengals just signed Gio to a nice extension so if you play the stack above be sure to bring it back to Gio who will rack up the receptions when the ginger is trying to not get killed by Clowney.

Josh Allen

  • The Jets being 27th in DvP against QB's last year paired with Allen's $5,600 price tag on DK and sub 5% ownership makes him a great GPP play for me.

  • Allen's rushing upside pared with his consistently low price makes him a great play most weeks, over the last 7 games of 2018 Allen averaged the most fantasy points of any QB.

Lamar Jackson

  • Looking back to Miami's last game of 2018 Josh Allen had 9 rushes for 95 yards and 2 TD's.

  • Miami is obviously in #TankForTua mode and the general consensus is that that Ravens should man handle the Dolphins, my only worry is that a competent Mark Ingram will vulture rushing TD's unlike Gus Bus or Kennith Dixon were able to do last year lol.

  • Lamar's lack of a clear #1 target makes him primarily a cash game play for me since we want some QB/WR or QB/TE correlation in our GPP lineups.

Matthew Stafford

  • While I mention that the Lions are archaic in their play calling later, they do know that they have a gunslinger QB in Stafford.

  • With the Cardinals playing up in pace and on their 3rd and 4th string CB's already (LOL) I imagine that Stafford has no problems carving up the Cardinals secondary.

  • With Stafford projected sub 5% ownership on Draftkings this makes a Stafford/Golladay/Johnson stack look very appealing for GPPs.

Cam Newton

  • I love Cam in GPP's with the Questionable tag next to his name driving down the ownership on a QB with rushing TD potential in the second highest game total on the slate.

Kyler Murray

  • The Rookies first start in the NFL, with a price tag of $5,600 on Draftkings and the rushing upside of 100+ yards how could you not like this play.

  • Preseason shouldn't be an indicator to what the Cardinals offense will look like considering they ran very few personnel packages that Kingsbery said they would implement during the year.

Nick Foles

  • Big Dick Nick in a new system, i'm not sure how he will do over the duration of the season but to keep up with KC he will have to be slinging the ball.

  • I do like Game stacking this game with a stack of Foles/Westbrook/Fournette and then bringing it back with Travis Kelce.

RB:

Christian McCaffrey

  • At $8,800 on Draftkings McCaffrey's price tag is pricey but we have seen the carnage that he can create and also making yourself want to close out the app and take a nap if you don't have him in your lineup.

  • At 51 points this makes the CAR/LAR the second highest game total on the slate, I actually think that the Rams might start off this season a little slow reeling from their embarrassing performance in the Superbowl. There are going a lot of points scored, but with Cam and supposedly a healthy shoulder I think the ball will be spread out to Samuel/Moore instead of almost exclusively dump off passes to McCaffery.

Saquon Barkely

  • Its Saquon hes in play every week, with Odell now in Cleveland the Gaint's only have Saquon/Engram/Shepard for viable targets.

  • This is a double edged sword though no longer having Odell's presence on the field teams can now stack the box (think Todd Gurley rams in St.Louis years).

  • The Giants are road dogs though (+7) which means the inept Eli manning will have to be passing and dumping the ball off more which means a lot of reception points from Saquon, making him playable on Draftkings but an avoid for me on Fanduel.

Ezekiel Elliot

  • (Contingent on Cowboys saying they will give him a full workload)

  • With Zeke and the Cowboys reaching a contract agreement Wednesday to make him the highest paid running back in the NFL I expect him to come out and put up a monster performance against an awful Giant's defense to prove that he is worth all they Cowboys gave up to sign him.

  • The Giant's traded away Damien "Snacks" Harrison who "led all at his position in run-defense grade (93.8), total run stops (46) and run-stop percentage (15.97%)"

  • Zeke will be a home favorite (-7), when playing DFS you want to target home favorites....following the train of thought that they will be up big and running the ball to run out the clock.

Dalvin Cook

  • Cook will be running against the Falcons Defense, who last year was 27th in DvP against running backs as well as allowing the most receiving points to running backs in the league.

  • The Viking's will be more focused on the run this year, with the firing of John DeFilippo (for being to "pass happy") proving this point.

  • With Cook being only $6,000 on Draftkings he will be mega chalk (25%+) which will make him a building block for cash games but not so attractive for GPPs.

Leonard Fournette

  • I am HUGE on Lenny's upside this year, with an upgraded OL and new quarter back Fournette wont be put in as many obvious run situations that allow opponents to stack the box.

  • With the KC/JAX total being set at 52 it make this game the highest total on the slate, usually you wouldn't want a running back on a team that you expect to be down but during this preseason Fournette played in 18/19 snaps with Nick Foles and every third down (getting 4 targets).

  • With the departure of T.J Yealdon and Alfred Blue heading to the IR the Jag's have Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo backing up Fournette (LOL). So it looks like wheels up for Lenny in passing down work this year.

  • At $6,100 on DK and projected sub 10% ownership this makes him one of my favorite GPP plays of the week.

Kerryon Johnson

  • While most of the NFL has joined the modern Matt Patrica and the Lions have decided to stay in the stone age and play ground and pound football and feed their running back's.

  • During the off season the lions hired Darrell Bevell (formerly of the Seahawks) this is a match made in heaven for Patricia's run first mindset (Just look at Chris Carson's game logs and how many carry's he gets.

  • Oh and did I mention Johnson is very talented at catching the ball and now does not have to deal with Theo Riddick vulchering dump off passes, and gets to do so against the Cardinals (Worst in 2018 DvP against RB's).

  • With Kliff Kingsbury stating that they want to bring the tempo up to 60-65 plays a game that means this Detroit offense will be on the field a lot more no matter what and at $5,800 on Draftkings this makes Johnson very intresting.

Chris Carson

  • With the Seahawks being home favorites (-9.5) expect Carson to be used a TON to chew the clock and secure this win for Pete Carrol and the Seahawks.

  • In 2018 the Bengals had the second to worst DvP against running backs, this paired with Carson's $5,700 DK price tag makes him a great tournament pivot. And even better on Fanduel since it is only 1/2 point PPR and receptions don't matter as much.

WR:

Julio Jones

  • Keep an eye on injury designation

  • Will have lower ownership because of the perceived tough match up with Xavier Rhodes (actually finished outside of PFF's top 100 CB's).

  • Has 13 catches for 142 yards against the vikings in his career (4 Games)

Odell Beckham Jr.

  • Reportedly not able to sprint in practice.

  • If healthy he'll want to make a big splash on his new team, but worried that game might get out of hand and Nick Chub might take over clock grinding duties.

  • Odell will be matched up with Adoree Jackson who allowed top 10 WR yards last year.

Mike Evans

DeSean Jackson

  • "D-Jax has posted 5-117-1, 4-126-0, 4-40-0, 4-55-0, 3-102-1, 4-129-1 and 5-67-0 receiving lines in seven career #RevengeGames and should greatly open up the intermediate areas of the field for Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz alike." @Ihartitz

Tyreek Hill

  • In 2 games against the Jags Hill has 7 receptions on 12 targets for 72 yards.

  • Tyreek will be shadow covered by Jaylen Ramsey, this is enough for me to spend $7,600 elsewhere. With that being said he could break an 80 TD at any moment.

Adam Thielen

  • "Stefon Diggs (hamstring) has played through injury in six games since 2015. Adam Thielen’s lines in the five he also played in: 2-52, 5 targets 7-86, 9 targets 12-202-2, 15 targets 5-98-1, 10 targets 5-28-1, 10 targets" @notJDaigle

  • I think the above stat proves enough for Thielen to be a top target.

Stefon Diggs

  • "Diggs is dealing with a hamstring injury. Career when playing through an injury designation: 3-42-0 2-18-0 8-59-0 4-29-1 4-27-0 5-49-0" @Ihartitz

  • This in combination with the Vikings supposedly new run first approach is enough to scale back my Digg's ownership week one.

Chris Godwin

  • Had 28 targets in the last 4 games of 2018, probably the most hyped up receiver of the off season and rightfully so.

  • No more Adam Humphries or DeSean Jackson to compete with for targets.

Tyler Lockett

  • With no more Doug Baldwin Tyler Lockett is now the clear #1

Dede Westbrook

  • Foles #1 target in a shootout.

Dante Pettis

  • Listed as Jimmy G's #1 WR

Christian Kirk

  • Will be operating out of the slot and presumably Murry's #1 target against a weak Detroit secondary.

Curtis Samuel

John Brown

  • Loved this stat from @AdamLevitan " Josh Allen led the entire NFL in aDOT (average depth of target) last year. John Brown's aDOT rank among all WRs last three years: 6th, 3rd, 18th."

  • This previous stat matched with the Jets giving up the most points to opposing WR in 2018 seems like a match made in heaven to me.

  • At $4,300 on DK I think a Josh Allen and John Brown stack will unlock a lot of super stars to pay up for and someone will win a GPP with this stack headlining their lineup.

TE:

Travis Kelce

  • With Jalen Ramsey shadow covering Tyreek Hill I think that Mahomes will be forced to target Kelce early and often.

  • The Jags have a couple new faces in the backfield and don't think they will be able to hang with Kelce, even last year Kelce had over 100 yards in this match up.

  • At $7,100 I prefer to only pair him with Mahomes instead of playing him solo.

George Kittle

  • With a game total of 50 this will be a shoot out, if Jimmy G wants to keep the 49ers in this he will have to targets his best weapon (Kittle).

  • The uncertainty at WR makes the situation even better for Kittle to be Jimmy G's clear cut target in a shootout.

  • Although I do expect his YAC (yards after catch) to massively regress from last year i think he will have a solid day Sunday.

Evan Engram

  • As mentioned earlier Engram will be one of three viable options for the giants come Sunday.

  • Engram basically being a pumped up receiver makes him a goldmine for Draftkings with the PPR and with the giants most likely playing fro behind the entire game I could easily see him getting 10-15 targets and at $4,800 on Draftkings that makes him my favorite overall tight end play of the week.

O.J Howard

  • In a shoot out.

  • one of Winston's favorite end zone targets.

  • Brate is injured and wont have to split snaps.

Geoff Swaim

  • If you have hit your cap and need salary relief ($2,900) and have to punt take a look at Swaim, and then take a look at how dependent Foles has been on this tight ends over his career.

D:

Bills

  • The Bills will have a top 3 defense by the end of the year

  • Sam Darnold is a turnover machine, hopefully they can take one of these back to the house.

  • Chris Herndon is suspended for the first 4 games.

  • Robby Anderson already has injury questions.

Ravens

  • Dolphins look to be a joke of an organization this year and the Ravens restocked on Defensive backs this summer.

  • While they might seem like the easiest play remember FitzMAGIC can happen no matter the circumstances.

  • They seem fine to pair with Jackson for cash but at 30%+ ownership I would look else ware for GPPs.

Cowboys

  • Its Eli Manning lol

  • No Odell lol

  • Cowboys have quietly built a top 10 defense (once Randy Gregory comes back)

Colts

  • While Luck might have stolen the headlines retiring, the Colts were a Top 10 Defense last year.

  • The chargers lost 2 O-Linemen already, lost deep threat Tyrell Williams during the off season, are missing Melvin Gordon.

  • I'm calling that Darius Leonard picks off rivers in this game.

Philly

Browns


Sources:

www.PFF.com

www.Rotoworld.com

www.statmuse.com


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