NFL Rundown Week 2



09/15

BETS

Bills -1.5 (-130)

Colts +3 (+105)

Steelers/Seahawks o47 (-110)

(Was on Cowboys -4.5 & Browns -2 but both of those have moved drastically)


General Notes

  • Oakland will be mega chalk, I would not play more than 2. Could have negative game script for Josh Jacobs and have to pass more.

  • Don't be worried to go back to Lamar Jackson, the AZ defense is THAT bad.

DFS

QB:

Pat Mahomes

  • Mahomes has a passer rating of 116.1 with 576 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception in 2 games against the Raiders in his career.

  • Points projection takes a hit without TYFREAK, but the Raiders lost Jonathan Abram

Josh Allen

  • Last week we saw how bad the Giants defense is when the let Dak Prescott throw up a gem (Perfect passer rating of 158.3).

  • With a combination of being cheep and his upside potential i'm willing to take a jab.

  • Hard to imagine that he turns the ball over 4 times (still got 20 points lmfao).

Lamar Jackson

  • Last week we witnessed Matt Stafford light up the Cardinals secondary for 385 yards and three touchdowns.

  • We saw the magic of Jackson 2 Brown last week and there is noting that indicates that Jackson can't light up this Patrick Peterson-less defense through the air on the ground.

Tom Brady

  • Brady has a passer rating of 92.1 with 7,700 yards, 63 touchdowns and 26 interceptions in 33 games versus the Dolphins in his career.

  • We saw Lamar Jackson (not known for his passing) shred this Dolphins secondary, my only worry is that the Patriots get up early and begin to pound the rock with Sony Michael.

  • Only worry is, Dolphins have won 5 of the last 6 home games against the patriots, but this team is so bad, also think that Brian Flores was a coordinator for the Pats and might be able to scheme against them well.

Ben Roethlisberger

  • "His last 3 games after throwing 1 TD or less AND losing:" @SpreadInvestor

  • 3 touchdowns, 1 INT, 250 yards

  • 2 touchdowns, 1 INT, 281 yards

  • 3 touchdowns, 0 INT, 452 yards

Others to consider: Deshaun Watson,Dak Prescott,Jared Goff,Derek Carr


RB:

Alvin Kamara

"3 Career Games Vs Rams (including Playoffs) " @DBro_FFB

  • 2017: 5 Rush 87 Rush Yds 1 Td| 6 Rec 101 Yds 1 Td

  • 2018: 19 Rush 82 Rush Yds 2 Tds| 4 Rec 34 Rec Yds 1 Td

  • 8 Rush 15 Rush Yds 0 Tds|11 Rec 96 Rec Yds 0 Tds

Josh Jacobs

  • At $4,700 and getting 23 carries last week its apparent that Draft Kings had his price out before the Monday night game has commenced.

  • Along with AP Jacobs should be a cash game lock, going up against a Chiefs defense that gave up 66 yards on 13 carries to Lenny Fournette.

Austin Ekeler

  • Opportunity share is too high for what hes priced at.

Sony Michel

  • Game should get out of hand fast and expect BB to give Sony the ball early and often.

  • Will have low ownership because of the dud he put up against the Steelers.

Giovani Bernard (If Mixon is out)

  • "In the four games that Joe Mixon has missed in 2017 and 2018, Gio Bernard averaged 17.5 touches for 89 yards and 1.0 touchdowns, which works out to a stellar 17.1 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats." @4for4_John

  • "Gio Bernard in four games without Joe Mixon (ankle, looking questionable) since 2017: 85% snaps, 11 carries, 8 targets 88% snaps, 14 carries, 5 targets 88% snaps, 12 carries, 9 targets 60% snaps, 15 carries, 4 targets" @Ihartitz

Matt Breida

  • Cheep and going against a Cincy offense that got torn up by Chris Carson last week, only worry is that he will be in a 60/40 split with Raheem Mostert.

  • Also Carson got the touches but Cincy was actually pretty stout against the run last week (efficiency wise).

Adrian Peterson

  • At $3,400 on Draft Kings AP should be a lock in cash games, when starting last year AP has almost 17 carries a game.

Others to consider: Mark Ingram,Chris Carson,Dalvin Cook,James Conner.


WR:

JuJu Smith-Schuster

  • With the facts stated above of how well Big Ben performs after a bad loss I believe that JuJu is in a prime spot to torch the Seahawks secondary who got exposed by John Ross last week.

Amari Cooper

  • Josh Norman sounds scary but in reality had career worst year last year and got torched for 6 receptions for 90+ yards and a touch down.

Keenan Allen

  • With Hunter Henry out for 4-6 weeks now there is even less competition for targets and Allen is the clear cut #2. Mike Williams might be out as well.

  • With the Chargers OL woes Rivers will continue to throw low aDot passes (Allen's forte).

Antonio Brown

  • Not sure he will get that much usage but you have to think if he does he will replicate what Marquise Brown did to the dolphins last week.

  • Will want to make a splash his first game with the Patriots given all the controversy this off season.

Stefon Diggs

Will Fuller V

  • Marrone stated that he doesn’t think CB A.J. Bouye (who would cover Fuller) will play.

  • Last week Sammy Watkins (KC's #2 WR) lit the jags up for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Jaylen Ramsey will be covering Fuller will have his way with whoever is replacing Bouye.

Tyrell Williams

  • Will be lining up against 2 CB's that should be on a practice squad somewhere.

  • Going to be a shootout and probably playing from behind and is Carr's #1 WR.

  • Under priced.

John Brown

  • We saw what Cooper/Cobb/Gallup did to this giants Secondary last week.

  • The Giants allows the most WR points to long passes last week (Brown's forte).

Tyler Lockett

  • Ownership will be suppressed because of him hardly meeting value last week.

  • Was double covered most of the game last week now he gets a great match up against the Steeler's secondary that gave up the most yards to slot WR's last year.

Others to consider: DJax,Michael Gallup,Marquise Brown,Sammy Watkins,Julian Edelman,Josh Gordon,John Ross III,Julio Jones,Mecole Hardman,Terry McLaurin (Cash).


TE:

Travis Kelce

  • Oakland was bottom 5 in points allowed to TE's last year.

  • Oakland usually plays the Cheifs tight and make it a shoot out.

  • Kelce has 48 catches for 648 yards and has scored 4 touchdowns in 10 games against the Raiders in his career.

Darren Waller (Cash)

  • The same goes with Waller as Jacobs, its evident that the pricing came out before Mondays game. He is egregiously priced and the best value on the slate.

T.J Hockenson

  • The Lions WR's all have pretty tough CB match ups which leads to Stafford locking on to Hockenson again.

  • Very under priced.

Evan Engram

  • Sterling Shepard ruled out.

  • The passing game will operate out of him and Saquon in the flats.

Others to consider: Mark Andrews,Delanie Walker,George Kittle


D:

Patriots

Colts

Texans (Cash)

Saints (GPP Only)

Sources:

www.Rotoworld.com

www.statmuse.com

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