05/03/2021 Draftkings MLB News and Notes

05/03

Slate Overview:

  • 10 Games

  • Weather Concerns

  • TEX @ MIN - Wind blowing out to right 15 MPH+.

  • CLE @ KC - Wind blowing in 10-15 MPH.

  • PPD watch in:

  • LAD @ CHC - Wind blowing out left center 8-10 MPH, if this game plays wind at Wrigley is one of this biggest factors in all of baseball.

  • MIL @PHI - Wind blowing out to left field 8-10 MPH.

  • SFG @ COL - Wind blowing in 5-10 MPH.

  • NYM @ STL

  • Things that stand out to me

  • Tough matchup for Glasnow.

  • Dean Kremer has some positive regression coming his way but he does struggle ALOT more vs lefties.

  • Kyle Hendricks looks awful, his SIERA's positive regression looks nice but that FIP hurts to look at.

  • Jose Quintana is high risk high upside with thye K% to LHP, just has to limit his walks.

  • Lot of randoms pitching tonight, take advantage of it.

Bets

  • Kenta Maeda - u5.5 K's (+127)

  • PIT ML (+155)

DFS

Home Run Call(S):

  • Max Kepler/Nate Lowe/ Adolis Garcia

Stacks:

Chalk/Cash:

  • COL

  • SFG

  • LAD

GPP:

  • PIT/BAL - Miguel Diaz hasn't pitched professionally in any capacity since 2019 and in 2019 he has 30 IP with 13 ER's and 10 HR's. Pirates usually never have any ownership and arnt projecting for much today, hopefully the lack of recent data keeps people off of them. BAL because Swonson is trash (very goodtechnical analysis I know).

  • TEX - While the Rangers arn't good they usually make for a great leverage play, there will be alot of ownership on Maeda and mainly because of their 30% K rate to RHP's but he has some ugly underlying numbers (6.2 FIP, 17% K rate, 2.7 HR/9 and the win is blowing out to right at 15 MPH).

Pitching:

Chalk/Cash:

  • Kenta Maeda - I'm fading

  • Walker Buehler

  • Tyler Glasnow

GPP:

  • Adam Wainwright

  • Aaron Civale - With a .170 ISO the Royals some pop against RHP's but with the wind blowing in at almost 15 MPH im hoping it can help must some of the Royals power, if he can get past (O'Hearn,Perez,Santana he should be smooth sailing). The Royals also have 4 players with a K rate of 29% or above to RHP's.

  • Joey Lucchesi - Super small smaple size but hes cheep, makes the expensive stacks work,and has decent numbers. While the Cards are hardly striking out to LHP's its going to regress some.

Sources:

https://paydirt.ghost.io

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.addmorefunds.com

38 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All